Arsenal could spend another ‘£500m’ in January without breaching PSR

Now that there is evidence to prove that spending big was essential this summer, some will naturally wonder what the January window could hold for the Gunners.

Although we’re only 11 games into the Premier League season, there’s already talk of one player Arsenal could sign, and that’s Bournemouth winger Antoine Semenyo.

Arsenal could afford to sign Antoine Semenyo and many other players during the January transfer window

Sources close to Arsenal Insider understand that Arsenal are keeping tabs on Semenyo ahead of the January window.

After Bournemouth announced the winger was being protected with a £65 million release clause, the question was immediately asked whether the Gunners could afford to pay the Cherries such a fee for his services this winter.

For an overview of Arsenal’s spending capacity this winter, taking financial rules into account, Arsenal Insider I sought advice from financial expert Adam Williams.

“From a PSR perspective, Arsenal have a lot of headroom. PSR is based on a club’s profit or loss: their bottom line. Arsenal can lose up to £105 million over a rolling three-year period, so we look at the 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons to determine their current PSR position.

“They lost £18 million in 2023-24, but we won’t have the accounts for 2024-25 yet. Obviously we won’t have the figures for 2025-26 until the end of the season either. However, I expect them to post a decent profit once they publish their 2024-25 accounts, so they will be roughly at financial balance during the first two years of this three-year evaluation window.

In the case of Arsenal’s interest in Semenyo, Williams said there is “nothing” in the Premier League rules that could stop the Gunners from signing the Ghanaian this winter.

“Once you add permitted spending like the academy, infrastructure and investment in the women’s team, they can afford to lose significantly more than £105m this season and still meet the PSR, so nothing in the Premier League rules will stop them signing Semenyo for £65m.”

To further elaborate on a possible deal for Semenyo, Williams explained that Arsenal could spend up to £500 million in January without repercussions on the PSR.

“Of that £65 million, only around £7 million is going to hit the bottom line this season, assuming he signs a four-and-a-half year contract – this is due to the way clubs amortize player transfer fees for accounting purposes.

“From a PSR point of view, Arsenal could spend an extra £500m on players in January and still come out on top. They won’t do that, obviously, because it would jeopardize their PSR position in future valuation windows, but hopefully it will give you an idea of ​​what’s possible.”

Arsenal restricted by UEFA financial rules

With a net spend of £257 million over the summer, some might be surprised to understand how much more Arsenal could spend in January.

There is, however, a catch.

Although the Premier League’s PSR restrictions are not a concern for Arsenal, UEFA’s decisions differ significantly.

“Where Arsenal are more restricted is under UEFA rules – and in particular their Squad Cost Ratio rule. Under this system, they are not allowed to spend more than 70 per cent of their income plus a three-year average of profits from the sale of players on first team wages and transfer fees.

“It’s also a calendar year test, so it’s a bit trickier to sort out. But I think they need to be pretty close to the limit in 2025. That’s a view that’s also shared by some people at the club.”

Williams set the scene for the challenges a costly winter could present to Arsenal, but when it comes to whether or not to sign Semenyo, the Gunners’ stance could be less cautious.

“If Semenyo joins he will sign in 2026, so it won’t make any difference in the calculation for 2025, but Arsenal will be mindful of the Squad Cost Ratio rule,” Williams said.

“I don’t think this would stop them from reaching a deal by any means, but it will be the main consideration when they take action on the transfer and salary markets, rather than RPS.”

Arsenal are incredibly well managed when it comes to balancing their finances, and the state of affairs heading into the winter market is now clear.