Arsenal vs Chelsea tips, predictions, best bets and Carabao Cup semi-final preview
Football Betting Tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Sent off during match at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
1.5 pt Enzo Fernandez will be carded at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1 pt Martin Zubimendi will be carded at 10/3 (bet365)
0.75 pt Riccardo Calafiori to score anytime at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5 pt Enzo Fernandez and Martin Zubimendi will all be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
0.25 pt Enzo Fernandez, Marc Cucurella and Martin Zubimendi will all be carded at 40/1 (bet365)
Sky Bet Odds | Power of paddy | Betfair
Kick-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. GMT
Television: Main Event from Sky Sports and ITV1
Overall: 3-2
The first leg of this Carabao Cup semi-final was exciting. Five goals, 27 shots, 11 on target and seven cards.
We head to the Emirates with a well-balanced tie, with Arsenal holding a slight 3-2 advantage over a Chelsea side who have started life well under Liam Rosenior, winning six of their first seven with the only defeat coming in the first leg.
The Blues have also scored plenty of goals since the change in management, shooting 19 times in those seven matches, so they will be keen to create enough to turn things around, although their defensive fragility remains a serious problem.
Arsenal are 4/6 favorites to win that night and 1/9 to qualify, which tells us that the bookmakers really don’t give Chelsea much of a chance.
It will be a tricky match, however, and I suspect the cards will flow, especially with Peter Bankes overseeing proceedings. He has handed out 4.3 cards per game so far this season, but he has officiated Chelsea three times and shown 20 cards, including three reds. A SEND IN THE MATCH at 9/2.
Bankes has shown Chelsea red twice in his three games, so there could be a needle between him and the players, which only helps this bet, as does the stakes of the contest, as it is a semi-final of a cup competition.
The Blues’ games this season have been heavy on red cards anyway, with 11 of their 31 games this season seeing that gamble come true, including the Championship meeting between these two sides in November.
We will also come back ENZO FERNANDEZ And MARTIN ZUBIMENDI WILL BE CARDED in singles at 11/4 and 10/3 respectively.
Fernandez has been carded nine times in all competitions this season at an average of 0.29 per 90, which would imply an overall price of around 5/2 before taking into account the card-happy referee and the increased stakes and desperation of the game.
Zubimendi has picked up seven cards this season in all competitions, averaging 0.24 per 90, making his prize also of huge value considering everything that has been discussed and the fact that he will regularly be under pressure from tricky players as Chelsea attack at full tilt.
We will combine the two in one DOUBLE CARD at 14/1, and we will also back the pair alongside MARC CUCURELLA in a 40/1 hat-trick, who has already been booked eight times this season, including twice against the Gunners. He has in fact been booked in five of his last six matches against Arsenal.
Granted, Bukayo Saka had a lot to do with that, so him being injured is a concern, but Noni Madueke is as direct and slippery as Saka, and he’ll always have Jurrien Timber or Ben White overlapping, two excellent foul right backs.
Finally, we need to try and support something related to Arsenal’s set piece. The Gunners, or simply ‘Set-piece FC’ at this point, continue to excel in this area of ​​the game, scoring no less than 28 goals from dead balls in just 37 matches in all competitions this season.
It’s a huge strength that they constantly rely on, and Chelsea struggle to defend them, so it’s definitely a mismatch. In the first leg, Arsenal scored from a corner through Ben White, with Gabriel also having a very good chance (0.24 xG).
Since Rosenior’s appointment, the Blues have conceded three goals from set pieces in five games against English sides, conceding on average 0.73 xGA per game in such situations, so we should really expect Arsenal to create quite a few chances from corners and free kicks here.
Unfortunately for us, main protagonist Gabriel’s price is 11/2 to score at any time, which is extremely stingy, and 7/1 to score with a header. The 4/5 he headed (Sky Bet) offers much better value.
But, for me RICCARDO CALAFIORI MARKS AT ANY TIME rates the best bet at 9/1, but it comes with a caveat that he can’t start – in which case he can cash out.
The Italian has been back since returning from injury, featuring 45 minutes against Kairat Almaty last week before a sub-appearance against Leeds, and hopefully it’s to keep him fresh for this one.
Calafiori has already scored once this season but should have more, and he is a constant threat, averaging 1.68 shots per 90 in all competitions, which is a big plus, as is his xG per 90 of 0.16.
Let’s hope he gets the nod, because I really think he’ll get some good chances in this competition, even in open play.
Odds correct at 2:15 p.m. GMT (29/01/26)
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