Because Michigan vs. Saint Louis could be the March Madness thriller we’ve been wanting

BUFFALO, N.Y. – The Michigan-Saint Louis connection begins with coaches Dusty May and Josh Schertz, who once met in Boca Raton, Florida, intending to quickly watch some film but ended up spending 10 hours talking shop in May’s former office at Florida Atlantic.

“He’s an absolute basketball junkie,” May said. “He’s a savant. I learned so much from him.”

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They are coaches cut from the same cloth: May and Schertz are film-chewing basketball devotees who started as coaches at the lower levels — FAU for May and Lincoln Memorial and Indiana State for Schertz — before rising to Saturday’s second round in the Midwest Region between the No. 1 Wolverines. 1 and the Billikens no. 9.

And they built two similarly constructed teams, with similar styles and a desire to set the pace with fast-paced offensive playbooks designed to push the score higher and higher.

“They play like us, to be honest with you,” said Michigan guard Roddy Gayle Jr.. “A lot like us. Honestly, I look at it as, how do we protect ourselves?”

Yaxel Lendeborg added, “We really run the exact same way. I feel like that’s a blessing and a curse for us.”

There is little doubt that Saturday’s match will be among the most frenetic and high-scoring of this year’s tournament. Look for fireworks when Michigan meets Saint Louis and look for each team to chase the 100-point mark in deciding which one will advance from Buffalo and into weekend two.

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“We have a lot of things in common,” Michigan center Aday Mada said. “We both know what kind of shots we want. We have good efficiency on offense. We play at a high pace. I think we’re pretty similar teams.”

The numbers tell the story:

• Saint Louis ranks eighth nationally with 87.7 points per game. Michigan ranks 10th with 87.2 points.

• The Billikens and Wolverines were two of three teams to score 100 points in Thursday’s tournament, along with No. 3 Illinois against Pennsylvania.

• The Billikens rank fifth in field goal percentage (51.2%) and Michigan sixth (51%).

• Michigan is fourth in assists per game (18.7) and Saint Louis is seventh (18.6).

• The Billikens rank 19th in the country in adjusted pace, according to KenPom.com, while Michigan ranks 22nd.

• Both offenses love to attack the rim. Saint Louis scored 66 points in the paint to defeat No. 1 Georgia. 8 102-77, while Michigan gave up 52 points in the paint in a 101-80 win against No. 16 Howard.

But the teams are not quite the same, and it is in these differences – and in the way each responds to the subtle advantages of the other – that the clash will be decided.

Saint Louis is much more skilled from 3-point range and much more willing to let things fly from deep. The Billikens are second nationally in 3-point percentage (39.8%) and 12th in long-range scoring per game (10.9). On the other hand, Michigan is 114th in attempts (25.1) and 85th in 3-pointers made per game (9.1).

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The Billikens are also even more effective in transition than the Wolverines. Saint Louis averages 16.9 fast break points per game, sixth in the country, while Michigan ranks 78th with 12.4 fast break points per game.

“If it gets to a game where it’s like a shootout, then we might not get the lead,” Lendeborg said. “Because that’s what they like to do. So we’re going to have to do our best to get them outside the 3-point line and get them to finish above our size.”

That’s easier said than done: just ask Georgia, who wilted early in their defeat and was looking for an exit before halftime.

But the Wolverines have two inherent advantages. One is the team’s obvious advantage in talent, with former top-tier recruits like point guard Elliott Cadeau and two potential NBA draft lottery picks: Lendeborg and forward Morez Johnson Jr., who had a team-leading 21 points against Howard.

Another is experience facing a fast-paced offense: Michigan defends its scheme every day in practice, at the very least giving the Wolverines the toughness to handle the Billikens’ frenetic pace.

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“It will be easier for us because we will defend things that we are used to defending every day in training,” Mada said. “But it’s going to be a tough game, because they’re really, really good and really talented.”

This goes both ways, though, since Saint Louis practices against the same style. And there’s no doubting the Billikens’ confidence after overcoming a 4-4 deficit at the end of the regular season.

“We have so much offensive talent that we can play with anyone,” Saint Louis forward Brady Dunlap said.

Michigan’s players identified the “extremely important” key, Gayle said, to setting the tone early and getting off to a good start. Saint Louis never trailed against Georgia and led by 14 points with seven minutes left in the first half, eventually pushing that lead to 17 points at halftime and as many as 40 points in the second half.

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On the other hand, the Wolverines were unable to defeat Howard until about six minutes into the second half. The Bison made 10 3-pointers in the first half, and trailed 50-48 after their first possession out of the locker room.

Controlling the flow of this potential shootout would play to the Wolverines’ most obvious advantage: a defense that ranks among the best in the country. Michigan is second in field goal defense (38.5%), third in blocks per game (5.9) and sixth in defensive rebounds per game (29.0).

Ultimately, Michigan will do its part on offense, and so will Saint Louis. With neither team likely to be moved from its preferred style, whether the Wolverines return to the Sweet 16 could depend on whether they can get the key stops that will make the difference in a game destined to be among the most explosive in this year’s bracket.

“We have to lead our defense,” Lendeborg said. “We have to be disruptive. We have to do our best to break them down a little bit and play in transition like we always do. If we can do that, then we should be good.”

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Michigan vs. Saint Louis, a March Madness thriller waiting to happen