Big Data That Supports Pep Guardiola’s ‘False’ Claim – Must Read
Opta predictor gives Manchester City a 21% chance of progressing
“Did you believe me about the 1%? I lied to you this time. That was the feeling, but you see it differently with time. We’re going to try,” commented Pep Guardiola. He put on a sheep’s clothing before the match that could leave him out of the Champions League, but now he rectifies his mistake. Any fan knows that you should never give up on a team of Manchester City’s stature. The Opta supercomputer (a platform designed to provide in-depth football statistics) also justifies the Catalan coach’s ‘lie’ and gives the Citizens a 21.6% chance of making it through to the play-in round.
If we look at the percentages of the hypotheses that could happen in the match, the data is different. According to Opta, Real Madrid have a 48% chance of winning, a draw (22.7%), and a defeat (29.3%). “Guardiola doesn’t think so, but tomorrow I’m going to ask him before the game if he thinks they only have a 1% chance of going through. We don’t think we have 99%. We only have a small advantage and we have to take advantage of it. We have to play the same game as in the first leg because it went well. That’s the idea,” said Ancelotti about Pep’s words.
Precedents give the white team an advantage
Guardiola’s men know that they are heading to Real Madrid territory, not only because they are playing at their stadium, but also because they are playing in their competition. Real Madrid have lost just one of the six games they have played against City at the Santiago Bernabéu, they have won three and drawn twice. Not only that, the Merengue club has scored in all of the last 78 games played at their stadium in the top European competition, except one, against CSKA Moscow (0-3).
Watch out for Haaland, he can make history
A goal-scoring beast like Erling Haaland is coming to the Santiago Bernabéu. That’s why the Madrid defense, led by the ‘anti-Haaland’ (Rüdiger), has to keep a thousand eyes on the Norwegian striker. In addition, the City striker has extra motivation: if he scores, he could become the fastest player, 49 games, and the youngest, 24 years and 193 days, to reach 50 goals in the Champions League.