Can Arsenal fix this? – The Athletic

For all the progress Arsenal have made under Mikel Arteta, they still find ways to make life difficult for themselves.

Wednesday’s trip to Molineux encapsulated many of the problems that have kept Arsenal vulnerable in the title race – notably difficulty fully capitalizing on an advantage and failing to deal with the ebb and flow of the game’s momentum.

“Margins” is a recurring term used by Arteta and his players since they became title challengers in the 2022-23 season. At first, they were looking to reduce the margins between themselves and Manchester City. Over time the task became how to extend them, but the challenge of doing so consistently has been a problem for Arsenal since the start of the winter.

At the start of the year, they were first with a one-goal lead going into the final 15 minutes of Premier League matches this season (eight). While the draw against Wolves is the first time they have done so since then – taking their tally to nine, the second highest in the league – too many opposing teams are still in positions where they can fight for points in the latter stages of matches.

Arsenal have only dropped points in two of those matches, Sunderland and Wolves away, but received warning signs in back-to-back home wins against Brentford and Wolves in early December. Each time, Arteta’s side went into the final 15 minutes with a one-goal lead, creating tension inside the Emirates Stadium. They scored a second to both, but Wolves had made it 1-1 after the Arsenal players appeared undecided as to whether to sit back and protect their lead or commit the ball.

A familiar sense of confusion littered their second-half performance at Molineux.

In the minutes following the restart, Arsenal were awarded a multitude of goal kicks. Each of them was caught short by William Saliba or Gabriel, only for David Raya to then kick long. Wolves’ central defenders have won each of these games with Viktor Gyokeres. With the striker unable to get the ball to grip, Wolves players and fans were encouraged to attack the Arsenal backline quickly.

Arsenal away are at their best when they take the emotion out of a home stadium. But their actions at Molineux fueled the atmosphere.

“We stayed in the game, and that was really important,” Wolves manager Rob Edwards told reporters after the game. “We wanted the players to come forward more. We felt it was the ideal moment: to play with a little more emotion. And I thought we did it very well at the start of the second half.

“We know they’re under enormous pressure right now and at the right time we can move forward and grow. We probably did it a lot sooner than we expected, to be honest.”

Arsenal show their frustration at conceding late against Wolves (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

This is not the first time these behaviors have surfaced. Arsenal players failing to follow Arteta’s instructions to calm down as the game entered the final 10 minutes was reminiscent of a problem he cited after their goalless draw against Nottingham Forest last month, where a lack of composure when they regained possession caused chaos.

“If I ask them what we need to do now, what the game demands, they know it, but we couldn’t do it throughout the match,” Arteta said when asked how his players can improve their emotional handling of matches.

Knowing the answers and coming undone shows the difficulty of the task facing Arsenal. Although neutrals might have expected Arsenal to overthrow Wolves, those who watched the December game would have known that a tough evening awaited them – regardless of the state of the game after half an hour.

Edwards’ point that he knew Arsenal would be under pressure was put to Arteta. “It’s an obvious thing, right?” he replied. “If you’re at the top you have to win, you have to win and win and win. So it’s nothing new.”

Building bigger runs and showing more composure looks crucial for Arsenal to rediscover that feeling of winning on a consistent basis.

In their two seasons competing directly with Manchester City for the Premier League (2022-23 and 2023-24), Pep Guardiola’s side have scored 94 and 96 goals respectively. Erling Haaland contributing 63 (33%) of those 190 goals is a major caveat, but even this season Arsenal are scoring fewer goals per game (1.92) than City (1.96) despite being five points ahead.

A baseline projection of 1.92 goals per game over 38 matches is 73, a total which remains well below that of the last two City teams to win the championship, and Liverpool last season (86).

Arsenal’s expected goal difference (xGD), which compares the number of goals they are expected to score and concede, has been raised as a concern in relation to the last 11 league matches over the past three seasons. Their value of -0.47 is lower than any current Premier League team in this period.

If they want to improve on that this spring, the 2023-24 season might offer the best inspiration. Arsenal have won nine of their last 11 league matches this campaign, compared to five in 2022-23 and 2024-25.

Two key factors behind this good form in 2023-24 have been the explosion in goals from set pieces following their trip to Dubai in January and the repositioning of Kai Havertz. These scoring methods can’t be repackaged as something new, but Arteta has shown innovation that could help Arsenal extend their margins when they need it most.

The first is again Havertz. Instead of playing solely up front, his role as a second striker helped connect the team in a way that others struggled to do when he was unavailable. The other new(ish) idea was to use Bukayo Saka in the center because it brings him closer to the goal while making it harder for opposing players to read him. Using these two players in similar areas created goals and scoring chances.

Arteta said Havertz has the possibility of being available to play at Tottenham Hotspur, so when he is back fit it could cause another major selection dilemma for Arteta. Could they play together, with Havertz in front and Saka behind him, or would they have to miss out? This combination has never been seen before, but it may be necessary considering what each player offers.

Kai Havertz’s return will help Arsenal (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

One of the benefits of using Havertz initially is that it provides a platform for play. In 20 seconds against Sunderland, Raya played long against him. Havertz stuck the ball in and Arsenal created a chance for him in the same passage of play. This has been an effective method of getting Arsenal up the pitch since this period after January 2024, but Gyokeres has not given Arsenal the same type of building block in matches when they need it.

Arteta himself will no doubt have these thoughts on his mind, but one thing is clear: Arsenal cannot continue to leave room for their opponents to resume matches. There were signs of what could happen if they did it earlier this season. Today, these failures threaten to become the story of their campaign.

Arsenal are still five points ahead at the moment, although City have a game in hand. For this to continue, Arteta and his players will know that something has to click quickly.