Could The Premier League Title Race be Over?

Premier League Title Race: What Are Arsenal’s Chances As March Starts

Arsenal’s Premier League title hopes took another hit as they failed to capitalize on crucial opportunities, following up a shock 1-0 home defeat to West Ham United on Saturday with a frustrating 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Liverpool took full advantage of Arsenal’s setbacks, further strengthening their position at the top of the table. A comfortable 2-0 victory at home against Newcastle United extended their lead to 13 points. However, it is worth noting that Liverpool have played one match more than Arsenal, leaving the door slightly open for a potential comeback.

 

Historically, only one team has managed to overcome a 13-point deficit and go on to win the Premier League title. Encouragingly for Arsenal fans, that team was none other than Arsenal themselves during their triumphant 1997/98 campaign. However, a crucial difference between that historic comeback and the current season is the number of remaining fixtures. Back in 1997/98, the Gunners had 19 matches left to play; this time around, they have only 11 games remaining to close the gap on Liverpool.

 

Current Form: How Do Liverpool and Arsenal Compare?

Form plays a key role in determining how the rest of the season may unfold. Liverpool have been impressive, securing 11 points from their last five Premier League matches. This run includes seven hard-fought points from a challenging sequence of fixtures against Aston Villa, Manchester City, and Newcastle United.

By contrast, Arsenal’s recent performances have been inconsistent. Their draw at Nottingham Forest, coupled with the defeat against West Ham, means Mikel Arteta’s side have managed only one win in their last four matches across all competitions. This dip in form could prove costly as they attempt to keep pace with Liverpool in the title race.

 

Liverpool’s Remaining Fixtures: A Favourable Run-In?

Liverpool’s upcoming fixtures appear to be relatively straightforward, which could play into their hands as they push for their first Premier League title under Arne Slot (and only their second since 1990).

March brings a more relaxed schedule, as Liverpool will play only one Premier League fixture this month, facing bottom-placed Southampton. Their EPL games through March and April seem favourable, with five of their next six fixtures coming against teams currently positioned in the bottom half of the table. The only exception is an away game against Fulham on April 5.

The Reds will have to balance domestic and European commitments as they navigate a packed schedule that includes a Champions League last-16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain and an EFL Cup final in March against Newcastle at Wembley. However, the Premier League fixture list appears relatively kind.

This changes in May, as Liverpool’s final run-in features clashes with Chelsea, Arsenal, and Brighton & Hove Albion. However, they will conclude their campaign at home against Crystal Palace, a fixture they will be expected to win.

Arsenal’s Remaining Fixtures: A Tougher Road Ahead

Arsenal, on the other hand, have a much trickier fixture list, which could further complicate their pursuit of the Premier League title.

Some difficult away days lie ahead as Arsenal will travel to Old Trafford to face Manchester United before encountering back-to-back London derbies against Chelsea and Fulham. They also have a challenging visit to Goodison Park in their fixture list, against a rejuvenated Everton, which could prove to be a stern test.

Somewhat similar to Liverpool, Arsenal only have two league matches scheduled for March, which may help ease pressure given their current injury concerns. However, their Champions League campaign could stretch their squad further, with a last-16 tie against PSV Eindhoven on the horizon.

Arsenal’s April will certainly pose more difficult challenges in the Premier League than for Liverpool, with the latter stages of the month seeing them take on an increasingly desperate Ipswich and an in-form Crystal Palace. And May will bring little respite for the Gunners, with Bournemouth and Newcastle visiting the Emirates Stadium, while they also need to deal with the small matter of a trip to Anfield.

Fixture Difficulty: Who Has the Easier Run-In?

In Fantasy Premier League (FPL), the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) is a tool that ranks upcoming matches from one (easiest) to five (hardest), providing insight into a team’s schedule difficulty.

• Arsenal’s total FDR score is 33, which equates to an average difficulty rating of 3.0 per match.
• Liverpool’s FDR score is slightly more favorable at 28, meaning an average rating of 2.8 per match across their remaining 10 fixtures.

Based on these ratings, Liverpool holds a slight advantage in terms of fixture difficulty. Arsenal’s tougher schedule could make their task of closing the gap on the league leaders even more challenging.

 

Can Arsenal Mount a Comeback?

Despite the odds stacked against them, Arsenal cannot be entirely ruled out of the title race. Having overturned a 13-point deficit once before, they have a historical precedent to draw upon. However, they will need a near-perfect run-in, coupled with unexpected slip-ups from Liverpool, to stand a realistic chance of reclaiming the top spot.

 

For Arsenal to make up ground, they must improve their recent form and find consistency in their performances. The return of key players from injury could play a crucial role in reigniting their title challenge. Additionally, Arteta will need to manage his squad carefully, ensuring they remain competitive in both the Premier League and the Champions League.

 

Liverpool’s Title to Lose?

Liverpool, on the other hand, are in pole position to secure the Premier League title. With a healthy lead at the top and a relatively favorable fixture list, the Reds have a golden opportunity to lift the trophy once again.

However, there is no room for complacency. The fixture congestion caused by their involvement in the Champions League and the EFL Cup final means squad rotation will be key. Slot will need to keep his players fit and fresh for the challenges ahead.

If Liverpool can maintain their current momentum and avoid significant injuries to key players, the title will be theirs to lose. Arsenal, though, will be hoping for a twist in the tale as they attempt to claw their way back into contention.

 

Final Thoughts: Who Will Lift the Trophy?

With 11 matches remaining for Arsenal and 10 for Liverpool, the Premier League title race is far from over. Liverpool currently has a significant advantage, but history has shown that title races can take unexpected turns.

While Liverpool’s fixtures appear more favorable, Arsenal has the experience of overcoming a similar deficit in the past. However, with time running out and a tough fixture list ahead, they must quickly rediscover their winning form if they are to keep their hopes alive.

As the season enters its decisive phase, football fans will be watching closely to see whether Liverpool can maintain their lead or if Arsenal can pull off another remarkable comeback. The battle for the Premier League trophy is set for an exciting finish.