Fantasy Basketball 2025-26: Jalen Brunson and James Harden on the Rotoworld staff fade to current ADPs
For every player a fantasy manager deems worthy of reaching in fantasy drafts, there is another he will actively try to avoid, especially if his average draft position (ADP) is too high.
With that in mind, Rotoworld basketball analysts Cole Huff, Noah Rubin, Raphielle Johnson and Zak Hanshew each picked two players who are fading in ADP this season. Check it out below.
On a more positive note, you can see some of ours staff favorites for 2025-26 here.
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Cole Huff’s picks: G James Harden (LA Clippers) and C Ivica Zubac (LA Clippers)
This is not meant to be a blow to Harden: I trust he will continue to lead the Clippers and could record one of his most efficient seasons shooting the basketball in quite some time, due to a presumably lighter load during the season. Given Kawhi Leonard good health to start the season, the additions of John Collins AND Bradley Beal as the scoring potential increases the starting lineup and a really reliable point guard Chris Paolo now on the roster to keep Harden from being overworked, overall scoring and usage should probably drop a bit for the former league MVP.
That could change quickly if age is a factor for this veteran team and Harden is forced to shoulder the load again out of necessity. But if health isn’t an issue, I expect The Beard to finish closer to a top-10 point guard than a top-5 one.
As for Zubac, I’m not that excited about him this season from a fantasy standpoint; I expect his production to decline a bit, like Harden. He averaged 30.0 minutes per game for the first time in his career last season and set career-highs in points, rebounds and assists per game by a comfortable margin. But context is essential: Zubac missed just two games all season and saw more opportunities (which he took advantage of) due to the roster’s clear lack of a reliable second big.
With Brook Lopez backing him up as arguably one of the best reserve centers in the NBA, and John Collins able to offer small-ball center looks, there’s a good chance we’ll see Zubac on the court less throughout 82 games.
Noah Rubin’s picks: G Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) and F DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings)
I’m happy that Green has the opportunity to start over in Phoenix. I think it’s the best thing for his career. However, I don’t know why anyone would expect a dramatic change in production in his first year away from Houston. According to NBA.com, Green’s usage rate last season was 26.7, the highest mark among the Rockets. Safe, Devin Booker (28.5) e Kevin Durant (28.3) both boasted higher usage rates and Green is set to replace Durant’s touches, but do we really expect Green to get the same opportunities as KD? And even if it does see an increase in usage, does that mean it will magically become more efficient or impact the game in new ways?
I’m not saying Green will take a step back, but the idea that he’s worth a top-75 pick just because he’s in Phoenix is not something I agree with. He certainly has a stronger position in the points leagues, but I don’t expect a dramatic jump in production, and he finished 79th in Yahoo! standard scoring last season.
This might just be DeMar’s time. He’s been one of the most consistently available players in the league over the past decade, but his athleticism isn’t what it once was. This is completely understandable for a 36-year-old, but it simply means that he is no longer as effective as he once was and is part of a team with more ball-dominant players. One stat that showcases the athleticism is his shot attempts, and last year he made just 9.3% of his shots in the restricted area, after being at 22.2% the year before and at least 18% each of the previous three years.
DeRozan is typically a player who creates the majority of his shots himself. However, he took his fewest shots per possession since 2015 and took more shots from his teammates per possession than he had in any individual season over the past decade. This is basically nerd-speak for “DeRozan is getting old.” I don’t see a world where it’s better than last season, especially with the lack of changes the Kings have made, other than introducing Dennis Schröder to take even more touches away from DeMar.
Early ADP data shows that some players are potentially overvalued by fantasy managers.
Raphielle Johnson’s picks: C Domantas Sabonis (Sacramento Kings) and F RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors)
Analyzing the average draft position can be tricky this time of year, as there isn’t a lot of data to rely on. However, Sabonis’ first-round ADP in 12-team leagues is a bit concerning. While he has undoubtedly been a fantasy stud in the past, I think his value will take another hit this season. After last season’s trade deadline, Sabonis was averaging 16.4 points, 13.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 3-pointers per game. While the Kings addressed the point guard position by adding Dennis SchröderSabonis will still have to exist in a lineup that includes two ball-dominant perimeter players Zach LaVine AND DeMar DeRozan. The Kings’ resurgent center production may not suffer, but the scoring is concerning.
As for my other pick, there are concerns regarding Barrett from ADP as well. As of Tuesday night, it had an ADP of 82.4 on Yahoo! leagues. Barrett has never been a top-100 fantasy player in terms of totals or per-game value, and has only had one top-150 season in his NBA career. For him to have an ADP comfortably in the top 100 at this juncture is crazy. And while Barrett looked good in Toronto’s preseason opener on Monday, he’s in a starting lineup that will include three other players who need to have the ball in their hands. Emmanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes AND Brandon Ingram. Will there be enough touches available for Barrett to threaten top-100 value, much less finish within that threshold? I say no.
Zak Hanshew’s picks: C Alperen Şengün (Houston Rockets) and G Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks)
Şengün finished with 19.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.3 threes while shooting 49.6 percent from the floor and 69.2 percent from the charity stripe. Despite productive numbers as a scorer, rebounder and facilitator, his points, assists, steals and shooting percentages were all a step down from his 2023-24 numbers. With Amen Thompson should continue his rise as an attacking midfielder, Kevin Durant ready to come on board as a scorer and rebounder and guys like the new guy Clint Capela and emerging candidate Tari Eson on track to consume minutes and usage, how can Sengun be expected to step up in 2025-26?
He is Nikola Jokić AND Domantas Sabonis lightweight, but doesn’t rebound as effectively as Sabonis, doesn’t score as prolifically as Jokic, and doesn’t pass as well as either. Sengun is overrated and overdrafted, and I won’t put him anywhere.
Brunson enjoyed another productive season in 2024-25, finishing with averages of 26 points, 2.9 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.3 3-pointers in 34.5 minutes. The superstar guard offered elite scoring and strong playmaking during his time with the Knicks, though his big numbers came at the cost of heavy minutes and high usage. With Tom Thibodeau out in New York and Mike Brown in, expect the Knicks to consciously limit minutes across the board.
Brunson finished 50th in per-game fantasy value a season ago, but there’s no way he’ll approach that level of production moving forward. With a new game plan and additional role players – Guerschón Yabusele, Jordan Clarkson, Landry Shamet, Malcolm Brogdon – look for Brunson’s playing time and statistical production to decline.