March Madness bubble winners, losers: Auburn sinking, Indiana sweating
On Sunday, after a long and tiring wait, the calendar will turn to the month of March.
With that will come a tense two weeks for dozens of men’s college basketball teams across the country, whose results in the final stretch of the regular season will determine whether their NCAA Tournament dreams live or die.
Announcement
Such is life in the dreaded bubble for the 68-team event.
March Madness Predictions: 13 teams that can win the NCAA tournament
Bracketology: The NCAA tournament prediction gets another shake-up
Six months ago, it’s an anxiety-filled position few would have imagined Auburn finding itself in. After the program’s second Final Four appearance in six years, the Tigers returned a handful of key contributors, namely guard Tahaad Pettiford, from a team that went 32-6 while bringing in some impactful new players like Keyshawn Hall.
Auburn’s outlook suddenly changed in late September, when coach Bruce Pearl shocked much of the sport by resigning and handing the reins to his son, Steven. Under a rookie coach who had never coached the sport except under his father, the Tigers failed to live up to their status as a preseason top-25 team, with a 15-13 record entering the weekend of Feb. 28.
Announcement
Things have been particularly bleak lately, with six defeats in their last seven games. Not all of those losses came against even the SEC’s biggest hitters. Over the past 10 days, Auburn has fallen to a sub-.500 Mississippi State team and an Oklahoma team that appears destined to make a coaching change once the season ends.
While this losing streak has put the Tigers in an awkward position, they have several important metrics working in their favor. On Thursday, Auburn was ranked 35th in the NCAA NET rankings, 37th on KenPom and 25th on BPI. On KenPom, it has the No. 1 strength of this season’s schedule, a ruthless run of games that featured some noteworthy wins against No. 7 Florida, No. 15 St. John’s and No. 17 Arkansas. While he has 11 losses, he has five Quad 1 wins.
By contrast, the Tigers have a pair of Quad 2 losses and are 42nd nationally in Wins Above Bubble, a metric the NCAA Tournament selection committee says will weigh heavily among bubble teams. There are some landmines lurking in the final three games of the regular season as well, with looming home games against Ole Miss and LSU, which are a combined 26-30.
Regardless of whether or not he is placed in March Madness, Auburn has experienced firsthand how difficult it is to leave a legendary coach.
Announcement
Here’s a look at some of the winners and losers among the bubble teams from last week’s games:
NCAA Bubble Tournament Winners
The statistics cited refer to Thursday 26 February
UCLA
The preseason No. 12 team has had a largely disappointing season, but over the last month the Bruins have begun to improve their play, with a mark of 7-3 in their last 10 games. This spurt was highlighted by a huge pair of home wins: against No. 8 Purdue and No. 11 Illinois. The win over the Illini last Saturday was followed by a 19-point loss to rival and bubblemate USC, a game in which New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent had 30 points.
Announcement
But don’t get too excited about your recent success, lest the UCLA coach think you’re speaking up a little too loudly.
Missouri
A Tigers team that had just two wins in Quad 1 in early February racked up three in a 13-day stretch, beating Texas A&M on the road on Feb. 11, holding on to beat No. 21 Vanderbilt at home on Feb. 18 and beating No. 22 Tennessee at home on Feb. 24. Missouri is now 5-5 in Quad 1 matches, although a 4-4 record in Quad 2 matchups could prove detrimental to its tournament hopes.
A trip to March Madness this year would mark the first time in 13 years that the Tigers have made the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons.
Announcement
TCU
The Horned Frogs seemed destined for an NIT berth just three weeks ago, with a 13-9 mark that most recently included a 26-point loss at the hands of Colorado. Since then, however, the team led by coach Jamie Dixon has won five of their last six matches. While four of those wins came against teams in the bottom half of the Big 12 standings, a Feb. 10 win over No. 5 Iowa State serves as the centerpiece of an increasingly impressive resume.
Ultimately, TCU could be hit with some nasty losses early in the season, including a Quad 4 loss at home to New Orleans and a Jan. 17 loss to a Utah team that is 2-13 in the Big 12.
Cal
Calgorithm got a data point advantage with a 73-69 win over SMU last Wednesday, giving the Golden Bears yet another win against a likely tournament-bound team (they also defeated North Carolina, Miami and UCLA).
Announcement
Cal’s 20-8 record is inflated somewhat by a soft nonconference schedule that has KenPom ranked 325th out of 365 Division I teams. It will have a chance to pile up some wins to end the regular season, with games against faltering Pitt, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest teams.
San Diego State
An Aztecs resume that had been lacking a marquee win finally got one, with San Diego State beating Utah State by 17 last Wednesday to hand what had been a 23-4 Aggies team its most lopsided loss of the season.
While predictive parameters such as the Aztecs – are n. 42 in the NET and no. 43 on KenPom, as of Thursday — that’s negative 0.06 wins above the bubble, ranking them just 53rd in the country.
Announcement
MANDATORY READING: What I missed about college basketball while covering the Winter Olympics
Losers of the NCAA tournament bubble
USC
After an 18-6 start, the wheels began to come off for the Trojans, who have lost four straight games. One of those losses came at home against an Oregon team that is No. 107 in the net and another came at 36 at home against No. 11 Illinois.
On Saturday, coach Eric Musselman’s team will have an important opportunity in the form of a home game against No. 10 Nebraska. With a win, USC could improve on its modest 2-7 mark against Quad 1 opponents.
Indiana
After a double win on the road against UCLA that improved their record to 15-7, the Hoosiers have lost four of their last six games, including three in a row. While losses, even lopsided ones, to Illinois and Purdue can be forgiven, a home setback last Tuesday against a 12-16 Northwestern team could loom large on Selection Sunday.
Announcement
Indiana is just 8-9 in Big Ten games, though coach Darian DeVries’ team is still ranked No. 38 in the NET, though that includes a 2-10 mark in Quad 1 games.
Moreover: Make no mistake, Indiana is a football school. It’s not even close
West Virginia
DeVries’ current team is in a slightly better position than its previous one. The Mountaineers have lost three in a row, including losses to Utah and Oklahoma State teams that were a combined 7-23 in Big 12 play.
West Virginia has fallen to No. 64 on KenPom, No. 66 in the NET and its minus-2.07 wins above the bubble are 69th in Division I. Even wins against BYU and UCF to end the regular season may not be enough at this point for a team that likely needs a run in the Big 12 tournament to put itself on the right side of the bubble.
Announcement
Saint Clare
The margin for error for teams outside of the sport’s power conferences, even in a league as strong as this season’s West Coast Conference, is sadly small for teams hoping to land an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.
The Broncos find themselves in that precarious position, with a No. 1 ranking. 38 on KenPom and a no. 41 in the NET rankings, but with two losses in their last three games, albeit against WCC powers Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Those losses, while understandable, robbed Santa Clara of a chance to improve on its 1-5 record in Quad 1 games.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes have only one non-Quad 1 loss this season — a 67-66 setback at the buzzer at Pitt on Nov. 28 — but have failed to get anything done in their biggest games of the season. Ohio State is just 1-10 in Quad 1 games and is 4-6 since a 13-5 start.
Announcement
It can reverse that discouraging trend, if only temporarily, on Sunday, when it hosts No. 8 Purdue. A win against the Boilermakers could put the Buckeyes back on the right side of the bubble.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bubble winners, losers: Auburn struggles, Indiana sweats