March Madness Predictions: Teams rising and falling in the predicted NCAA Tournament
As the calendar turns to March and Selection Sunday approaches tantalizingly close, the heated annual discussion of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament bubble has begun once again.
But for all the debate surrounding who should be in and out of the 68-team field, dozens of other teams across the country that are safe will spend the final two weeks of the 2025-26 regular season jockeying for position in the bracket.
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At this crucial time of the year, some teams are hitting their stride and appear poised for a deep tournament. Others, meanwhile, see their once-bright hopes fade with one loss after another.
A prelude to March Madness: Basketball conference tournament schedule
Which teams are emerging in March Madness projections? And which ones are starting to stumble?
Here’s a look at the latest list of rising and falling teams for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
Predicted seeds are based on USA TODAY Sports’ Feb. 27 bracket update
On the rise
Florida
Current seed expected: No.2
The reigning national champions once again look among the favorites to cut down the nets with “One Shining Moment” playing in the background. The Gators got off to an inauspicious 5-4 start, but have since gone 18-2. Their once-struggling backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland is starting to regain shape, while their frontcourt remains arguably the best in the sport.
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Florida appears to be the clear favorite in the SEC and if its run continues, it may be able to join Duke, Michigan and Arizona as the No. 1 seeds.
UConn
Current seed expected: No. 1
If the Gators fail to devour the latest No. 1 seed, it will likely be because of another recent national champion. The Huskies haven’t had the same run as Florida — they’re 5-2 in their last seven games after starting the season 22-1 — but one of their recent wins was as impressive a win as anyone has had this season: a 72-40 rout of St. John’s on Feb. 25.
The win helped solidify UConn’s position as the fourth No. 1 seed, a status aided in part by a Dec. 9 win at Madison Square Garden against the Florida team that is chasing it.
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Alabama
Current seed expected: No. 4
A month ago, the Crimson Tide were 14-7, coming off a 23-point loss at Florida and mired in the controversial eligibility fight of former G League player Charles Bediako. Much has changed since then. Coach Nate Oats’ team reeled off eight straight wins, including against ranked Tennessee and Arkansas, and finished as high as No. 15 in the NCAA’s NET rankings.
Holy Mary
Current seed expected: No. 8
The Gaels are coming off their most emphatic, and certainly sweetest, victory of the season, a 70-59 victory on Feb. 28 against then-No. 9 Gonzaga in the final regular season meeting between the rival West Coast Conference members. Saint Mary’s has won its last eight games of the season and is 18-2 since Dec. 15.
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With another win against the Bulldogs in a potential WCC championship matchup, the Gaels could perhaps avoid a No. 1 seed. 1 or n. 2 in a possible second-round NCAA Tournament game.
Virginia
Current seed expected: No. 4
Yes, the Cavaliers are coming off a 26-point humiliation at the hands of Duke, but there have been few teams better than them nationally since the calendar flipped to 2026. After a triple-overtime loss at Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve, Virginia is 14-2, with wins against NC State (twice), at Louisville and against Miami.
Ryan Odom engineered one of the most impressive one-year turnarounds in recent memory in the sport. It’s the least he can do after upsetting the No. 1 seed Hoos in 2018, when he was UMBC’s coach.
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MANDATORY READING: March Madness predictions: 13 teams that can win the men’s tournament
Falling
BYU
Current seed expected: No. 6
What was supposed to be a magical season for the Cougars with potential No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick AJ Dybantsa has begun to unravel in recent weeks. Since starting the season 16-1, BYU is just 4-8 in its last 12 games. While some of that is due to the inevitable rigors of a Big 12 schedule, it also suffered losses to the likes of Oklahoma State and West Virginia, neither of which are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. As of Jan. 17, the Cougars are only the No. 60 team nationally, according to Bart Torvik.
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A season-ending injury to Richie Saunders on Feb. 14 certainly didn’t help matters, but even before that, BYU was already slipping, with a 2-5 mark in its most recent seven games.
Purdue
Current seed expected: No.2
A Boilermakers team that was 17-1 and No. 4 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll just six weeks ago has been significantly deadlier over the past month and has turned that around, going 5-6 in its last 11 games. Most recently, it has lost three of its last four games, including an 82-74 loss Sunday to an Ohio State team desperately fighting for survival in the NCAA Tournament.
Purdue still has one of the best players in the sport in guard Braden Smith, but late in the regular season, the preseason No. 1 team fell far short of expectations.
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Houston
Current seed expected: No.2
“Falling” is a relative term when you’re dealing with a program that’s been as dominant as Houston’s over the past five years, but the Cougars are 1-3 in their last four games after a 23-2 start. That skid included the program’s first three-game losing streak since 2017.
Coach Kelvin Sampson’s team may ultimately not be so hurt by recent mistakes. Whether it’s a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, the Cougars could end up playing Sweet 16 and potentially Elite Eight games in Houston.
Texas A&M
Current seed expected: No. 9
Bucky Ball, the fast-paced system implemented by first-year Aggies coach Bucky McMillan, has hit its share of bumps lately. Texas A&M has lost six of its last eight games after starting the season 17-4, with three of those losses coming by at least 13 points. Luckily for the Aggies, there’s a chance for a high-profile rebound, with a home game Tuesday against Kentucky.
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Louisville
Current seed expected: No. 6
The Cardinals have quietly been one of the most disappointing teams in the sport this season, going just 13-9 after a 7-0 start that put them at No. 6 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Part of that could be attributed to an extended injury absence of five-star freshman guard Mikel Brown, without whom Louisville went 4-4, but even with Brown and every other rotation piece, it has lost three of its last four games.
Coach Pat Kelsey’s team is increasingly looking like a team that will be lucky enough to advance beyond the first week of the tournament, rather than the Final Four or national championship contender it was seen as in the preseason.
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NC State
Current seed expected: No. 7
Will Wade will likely get the Wolfpack back to the NCAA Tournament in his first season at the helm, but they are currently limping towards that spot. NC State has lost four of its last five after an 18-6 start. The losses are bad enough, but how they arrived is even more worrying. It was outscored 41 at Louisville and 29 at Virginia and, most recently, lost on the road to a 13-16 Notre Dame team that had lost 12 of its previous 14 games.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament teams up, down for March Madness