NBA Cup: Is Victor Wembanyama the only hope to curb a Thunder dynasty?
LAS VEGAS — When a sweaty Victor Wembanyama sat on the Spurs bench, having played his first three and a half minutes of action in a month, a matchup with the champions that once seemed unattainable suddenly wasn’t.
If the first quarter of Saturday night’s semifinal was a reminder of the reign of terror the 24-1 Oklahoma City Thunder have enjoyed for months, the second was a reminder of French strength that refuses to buckle.
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His introduction to the game – coming off the bench for the first time in his career – changed anything. The friendly skies that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had been sailing on since October now encountered 7 1/2 minute turbulence. The Spurs’ missed shots became mere second-chance opportunities for the lanky center. The half-court sequences that Oklahoma City normally ran in their sleep were now reconsidered, with Wembanyama altering, discouraging and erasing shots.
His initial presence was also felt in the box score. An 11-point lead was cut to four. The 16-point lead was cut to three, both in a matter of minutes. When the halftime siren sounded, Wembanyama, despite having only played seven minutes, was already leading in plus-minus (+20) by an overwhelming margin.
“I wasn’t really sure what to expect,” Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said of Wembanyama’s first-half performance. “I think he did a phenomenal job of impacting the game without having to score. He was aggressive, he wanted to play with the basketball in his hands, but I think he did a good job of impacting the game without having to score, especially in that second quarter that you referenced.”
And when the final five minutes of regulation came, behind an emotionally invested crowd at T-Mobile Arena, the Spurs, those exuberant, pesky Spurs who shouldn’t even be here, understood the task. As long as Wembanyama remained on the pitch, belief and confidence would blossom. His previous 12-game absence had pushed the team into uncharted waters, forcing them to survive – and they responded by dominating the waves, winning nine.
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So despite the fact that Wembanyama’s impact was contained within the confines of a minutes restriction — a combination of managing a strained calf and the reality of the new 65-game rule for NBA awards — his teammates were ready to fill the gaps when he couldn’t. 67 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists from the trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell were more than enough to carry the load. And when it came time for Wembanyama to send the Thunder into the night, he did so with aplomb; a 15-point fourth quarter against the defending champions. 22 points, nine rebounds, two assists, two blocks and one steal in 21 minutes. A streak of 16 consecutive victories was ended. A hero is back. A statement made.
“It’s just amazing,” Wembanyama said. “I keep asking these guys over the last 12 games to get better, to do good things. And I just wanted to be a part of that. I’m happy that we can still do that when I’m here, I’m happy about it, obviously. But I’m just happy to be a part of something that’s becoming so good. Pure, ethical basketball.”
For one glorious evening, the Thunder looked less like the most devastating team in the sport and more like a group that has forgotten how impactful Wembanyama truly is. So as important as it is for the Spurs to advance to the NBA Cup Final, it’s equally critical to understand what San Antonio can actually do with a healthy group. Saturday night was the first time all season that the Spurs had all of their rotation players available, which, given what they were able to accomplish on a national stage, should terrify the rest of the NBA.
Johnson’s ability to navigate the floor without Wembanyama was admirable, an ode to the depth and roster construction that general manager Brian Wright oversaw last summer. But despite leading the Spurs with the No. 1 offense. 9 in the NBA since mid-November, any hope of sustained success was slim with a defense that ranked fifth-worst in the league, allowing 122.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.
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With Wembanyama back at center, San Antonio’s defensive identity established months ago can recalibrate. The Spurs allow a paltry 106.5 points per 100 possessions in Wembanyama minutes, a mark that would rank second in the NBA behind, ironically, the Thunder. But he is not alone What Spurs do it while Wemby is down, it is As they do it. Opponents take nearly 9% fewer shots at the rim and 5% fewer shots below the free throw line, a 99th and 98th percentile impact, respectively, according to Cleaning the Glass. The same naysayers see their conversion rates in those areas drop by more than 10%, still in the 98th and 99th percentiles. A seismic and stylistic shift like that cannot be understated, either in a vaunted Western Conference or the entire league, for that matter. In other words, welcome back Wemby.
“I think we’re on the right track,” Wembanyama said. “And for the first time in my career, we’re winning a lot more than we’re losing. So it’s a great pleasure, because… it’s not normal when we lose, but unfortunately these are things we have to deal with. And we’ll deal with it again in the future if we need to, but we’re winning a lot more than we’re losing right now, so we’re all where we like to be, we’re all where we want to be.”
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The Spurs (18-7) now find themselves in fourth place, just 0.5 games behind the second-seeded Denver Nuggets. According to Tankathon, San Antonio has the third-toughest remaining schedule, notably with two more meetings with Oklahoma City this month and dates with Cleveland and New York. But there’s a contagious confidence in this group from top to bottom, a youthful ignorance, if you will, that gives them an edge. Wembanyama will certainly have increased his confidence in his teammates having been able to witness their production from the best seat in the house. Fox, Vassell and Castle have proven they can keep an offense afloat, with the Spurs posting an impressive 117.3 points per 100 possessions when these three share the court, according to NBA.com tracking data, as well as a pace rating of 105.7 that would rank near the top of the league.
“I think we’re very comfortable recognizing Victor as the face of our franchise and the biggest piece of our puzzle,” Johnson said. “But he is not the puzzle by himself, and he doesn’t want to be, and we are a team and a group.”
“It’s just experience,” Wembanyama added. “We’re just trying to figure it out. Because this OKC team, not only is they first in the league, they’re way ahead of everyone. They’re enjoying the little things that make them win, and that’s the next step we need to take.”