Premier League predictions and best bets: Leeds to do Arsenal a favour by drawing with Manchester City | Football News
Our football betting expert, Jones Knows, gives his thoughts on the Premier League weekend card.
Leeds vs Manchester City, Saturday 5:30 p.m., live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Everyone automatically looks to Erling Haaland to score goals. But the smartest angle right now might be his creativity. There has been a dramatic increase in creative output.
He has created just 10 chances from open play in his first 18 league matches of the 2025 season.
He has already created 10 in just nine league matches in 2026.
And in terms of recent production, he has recorded six assists in his last 17 games.
We see a more balanced Haaland who is asked to participate more in the construction. He rolls balls into the six-yard box. He slides runners behind.
With City expected to score twice in the market, Haaland’s assist price of 7/2 with Sky Bet is interesting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2 p.m., live on Sky Sports
Elliot Anderson has been pushed further under new boss Vitor Pereira – and the player himself has admitted the message is clear: more end product, more presence in the final third and, above all, more shots.
Music to the ears of anyone who plays in the gamer accessory markets.
If you factor in the super-sub concession, he’s taken 17 shots in his last four appearances. For a player who earlier in the season was often stationed deeper and tasked with stringing plays together rather than finishing them, the algorithms that evaluate shot markets are lagging behind this positional adjustment.
At 11/8 with Sky Bet for two or more shots, the line seems based on Anderson’s old role, not his new one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Tottenham, Sunday 2 p.m., live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
The relegation alarm bells are ringing for Tottenham, who are now 5/1 to be a Championship team next season.
With 11 games left, it’s real money that will be matched. We no longer discuss the unthinkable. We discuss the plausible.
They are in enormous danger.
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Sky Sports reporter Michael Bridge is at Tottenham Hotspur’s training ground to recap the ins and outs of Igor Tudor’s Premier League press conference.
And what should worry most everyone associated with the club isn’t just the results, it’s the identity crisis. They seem stuck between philosophies and styles. There is an injury situation which is very tough. And when the pressure mounted, the response has not been there until now.
Fulham have won their five Premier League games against the bottom five teams this season. They have also won the last two Premier League meetings with Spurs.
And that’s the key point: Fulham know exactly who they are. Structure. Aggressive in good times. Calm in possession. Against a team that plays like one of the bottom three teams, at home, it’s huge.
Do Spurs have the courage to do this? The mentality? Scrap metal? Because right now, all the underlying indicators say no. Fulham to Evens with Sky Bet looks good to me.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2 p.m., live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
This is one of those points in the calendar where Manchester United being out of Europe gives them a huge advantage. Oliver Glasner has developed a very clear model. When there is a knockout match in Europe, everything goes into it. Emotionally, tactically, physically, the dial is raised. The problem ? The championship match that follows often takes its toll.
In the last eight league matches immediately following a midweek knockout match, Glasner’s teams have lost six, drawn one and won just once. And even that victory – against Wolves last weekend – had more than the whiff of fortune. Good margins favored them.
They now face Manchester United who have started to find rhythm. There was more sense in their offensive play. At 11/8 with Sky Bet for Manchester United to win by two goals or more, you’re getting a price that doesn’t fully account for Palace’s predicted post-European swing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 4:30 p.m., live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
This match for Arsenal is one of only two remaining in the Premier League against another current top six opponent. The other is the trip to Manchester City in April.
Chelsea tend to up their game when facing an important match, but Arsenal’s defensive process is simply too reliable to ignore when assessing the prizes of this encounter. Arsenal’s underlying process remains by far the best in the league, with goals being conceded due to errors or low-probability shots coming from distance.
The last open play Premier League goal they conceded inside the area that did not come from an individual error was Ollie Watkins’ consolation for Aston Villa on 30 December. That was nine games ago.
They did not allow a properly constructed, open, inside-the-box goal during this period. This is elite defensive control. Arsenal’s classic gamble to win and score under 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet, who have won seven of their last 11 Premier League home matches, has a good chance of succeeding.