Premier League predictions and best bets: Title race tremor! Tottenham to rock Arsenal in north London derby | Football News
Our football betting expert, Jones Knows, gives his thoughts on the Premier League match weekend card.
Aston Villa vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Leeds on the double chance at Evens with Sky Bet is a very attractive bet.
For what? Because Villa without Boubacar Kamara is a completely different animal.
Since the start of the 23/24 Premier League season, when Kamara is playing, Villa have conceded just 1.1 goals per game and have won 61% of their matches. This is a high caliber production. He provides such structure, control and protection to the back four. Everything goes through this defensive midfield screen.
Take it out of the equation and the fall is dramatic.
Without Kamara, Villa concedes 1.7 goals per game and their win rate drops to 42 percent. This is not a marginal drop, it is the difference between a team chasing the Champions League and a team operating mid-table.
He’s the glue that keeps Villa’s shape so compact. Without him, it’s easier to play against them.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Brighton, Saturday 3 p.m.
Igor Thiago is a striker who makes those who like to combine bets sit up and take notice using the BuildABet feature.
He’s a chaos merchant. The type of defender hates playing against him because he is an elite finisher but someone who also shows off. Goals, fouls, bookings, it’s all part of the package.
This exact combination of a goal, two fouls and a card has landed in two of his last six starts. That’s a strike rate of 33 percent for a 10/1 shot. From a purely numerical point of view, this is an interesting advantage to attack at a juicy price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BEST BET JONES KNOWS: Igor Thiago will score, commit +2 fouls and be carded (10/1 with Sky Bet)
Chelsea at 2/9 with Sky Bet telling you everything about how this match is expected to go.
The betting advantage goes to Joao Pedro at Evens to score.
Since the arrival of Liam Rosenior, there has been a notable change in the way Chelsea’s central striker is used. Rosenior has a proven track record of improving the offensive output of key players, giving them clarity in their role and confidence. Strikers thrive on pace and accountability. Joao Pedro currently owns both.
Four goals in his last five Premier League games show a sustained period of form. His shot volume is healthy, his touches in the box are up and he functions as a clear focal point rather than drifting in and out of games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Joao Pedro to score (Evens with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Bournemouth, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6S HERE!
Andoni Iraola and the Bournemouth hierarchy are doing remarkable things. Every key indicator of their performance and results is up since they sold their best player, Antoine Semenyo, six games ago.
They are the new Brighton when it comes to recruitment. They have a great way of finding players who can play Iraola’s high-intensity, vertical, aggressive style without the on-ball style and then take the next step in terms of development.
Bournemouth are unbeaten in 12 Premier League games this season against teams currently 12th or lower and Iraola has never lost to a Nuno Espirito Santo side in five meetings, winning on aggregate 12-6. There’s plenty of juice in taking the cherries on the no-bet draw option at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BEST BET JONES KNOWS: Bournemouth don’t make any bets (even with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Saturday 8 p.m.
Nick Woltemade plays in central midfield. This seems wrong. This doesn’t look good. And yet it works.
This shift in position from center forward to part of midfield provides excellent betting opportunities while the prop market is slow to adjust its lines.
Since moving deeper into the heart of the midfield, Woltemade has racked up fouls at a higher rate than his usual output. During his two starts at Aston Villa and Qarabag, he committed three fouls (fouls won and fouls committed). He’s 13/10 to land with Sky Bet again. A price that cracks you up.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Wolves, Sunday 2 p.m., live on Sky Sports
There is nothing more powerful in football betting than narrative meeting numbers.
Jorgen Strand Larsen facing former club Wolves for his new employer Crystal Palace? This is the kind of angle that gets the juices flowing.
The 25/1 offered by Sky Bet for him to score and card is one of those prices that makes you take a double take. A player who has something to prove is a dangerous player.
We often see former players starting these matches at full capacity. Emotion sets in and emotion can lead to reservations. If he scores, the party could boil over. Both bets could come to fruition in a single action. And they still have a chance to land at different times in the match.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Jorgen Strand Larsen to score and card (25/1 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6S HERE!
If you look at the price of outright victory over Liverpool at 4/5 at Nottingham Forest, I’m with you.
Yet sometimes the most accurate play doesn’t just support the obvious outcome, it supports the model that accompanies it. Liverpool winning to nil at 23/10 seems a much more rewarding angle. When Liverpool win, they tend to close the door. There’s very little “we’ll outscore you 3-2” about their recent wins, especially in games where the market expects them to take care of business.
Their seven recent wins against teams they beat 4/5 or less away from home have come to zero. When they dominate this type of encounter, they control the territory, limit transitions and take the lives of opponents. It’s the Arne Slot way.
Zoom out further and nine of their last 11 wins overall have also been draws.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Sunderland vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6S HERE!
This is one of those ultra-condensed markets where you can argue for all three outcomes without really convincing yourself about any of them. Prize money is tight, hovering around 17/10 for both and the handicap lines are conservative.
When this happens, the draw often becomes the value simply because it is the highest prize of the three.
At 23/10 you are paid more for a result that matches the shape of the game. Sunderland at home are very competitive, well coached and rarely blown away. Fulham are organised, tactically mature and comfortable playing on tight away margins. These two might just cancel each other out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4:30 p.m., live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Lots at stake with a backdrop of pure tension in the air. Tottenham are too big at 5/1 for victory but the best bet revolves around the cards.
The last 13 games have produced 5.3 yellows per game and I would expect that to average, but the market has covered that.
It is therefore advisable to go towards the player cards.
Martin Zubimendi is where my money is going at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
Zubimendi is a cynical player who tends to get caught off guard in transitions or maneuver his way into trouble in big atmospheres. He has been sent off at Liverpool, Sunderland and Chelsea – and already three times in the Champions League this season.
His direct opponent here, Xavi Simons, is another reason to get involved. He is an excellent foul and card shooter. And makes challenges worse than they are, which is a key trait when looking for value in card matchups.
If you analyze his data of cards drawn in championship matches over the last three seasons, he has drawn 37 cards on his opponents in just over 4,000 minutes of action. This represents one card drawn every 108 minutes, or almost one per game. Elite level shenanigans.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Martin Zubimendi will be carded (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Everton vs Manchester United, Monday 8 p.m., live on Sky Sports
Harry Maguire, fouled at 5/6 with Sky Bet, looks like a brilliant angle to attack.
Since returning to the United States from the starting lineup, it’s a bet that has been silently printed. He has been fouled in each of his last five starts, winning seven total fouls in those games. He attacks the first contact aggressively, advances to midfield with the ball and does not hesitate to place his body between the opponent and possession. When you play this way, contact follows.
His probable direct opponent, Thierno Barry, commits on average 1.75 fouls every 90 minutes. He is an attacker who commits, who presses hard and who does not hesitate to leave one foot behind.