Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal – Premier League (January 17, 2026)

As the Premier League season enters its critical mid-winter stretch, the City Ground prepares to host a high-stakes encounter between two sides at opposite ends of the spectrum. Arsenal, currently sitting atop the table, travels to Nottingham with the intent of extending its lead over Manchester City. Conversely, Nottingham Forest, led by the pragmatic Sean Dyche, find themselves embroiled in a gritty relegation scrap, currently occupying 17th place.

This fixture has historically provided drama, and with the “Tricky Trees” desperate for survival points and the “Gunners” chasing their first title since 2004, the tactical battle between Dyche’s low block and Arteta’s fluid attacking system will be the highlight of the weekend.

In-Depth Analysis

Arsenal: The Title Surge

Mikel Arteta’s side has been a model of consistency this season. Boasting a record of 15 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 losses, Arsenal’s dominance is underpinned by a league-high +26 goal difference. Their recent form is blistering, coming off a thrilling 3-2 victory over Chelsea in the Carabao Cup semi-final and a 4-1 demolition of Portsmouth in the FA Cup.

Tactically, Arsenal has evolved. The addition of Viktor Gyökeres (predicted to start) has provided a focal point that was previously missing, allowing Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli more space to operate. Despite defensive injuries to Piero Hincapié and Riccardo Calafiori, the core of Saliba and Gabriel remains the most formidable partnership in Europe.

Nottingham Forest: Survival Mode

Sean Dyche has instilled a “never say die” attitude at Forest, but the results have been inconsistent. Sitting in 17th with 21 points, they are only clear of the drop zone by a narrow margin. Their defensive frailties were exposed in their recent 3-3 FA Cup draw against Wrexham, a result that highlighted a lack of composure in high-pressure transitions.

Forest will be severely hampered by the AFCON tournament, with key midfield anchors Ibrahim Sangaré and Willy Boly away on international duty. Furthermore, the absence of Chris Wood (knee) and the ineligibility of Oleksandr Zinchenko (loaned from Arsenal) leave Forest thin in critical areas.

Head-to-Head (H2H) & Goal Statistics

Historical data points toward a high-scoring trend in this matchup. Across their last 11 meetings:

• Arsenal Wins: 7

• Nottingham Forest Wins: 3

• Draws: 1

• Average Goals per Match: 3.09

• Over 2.5 Goals Frequency: 72.73%

Recent Results:

• Sept 13, 2025: Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest

• Feb 26, 2025: Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal

• Nov 23, 2024: Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest

• Jan 30, 2024: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal

The trend is clear: when Arsenal is on song, they tend to score in bunches, and Forest’s aggressive home atmosphere often forces them into an open game that favors high scorelines.

Injury Update & Predicted Lineups

Nottingham Forest:

• Out: Chris Wood (Knee), John Victor (Knee), Oleksandr Zinchenko (Ineligible), Ibrahim Sangaré (AFCON), Willy Boly (AFCON).

• Doubtful: Ryan Yates (Hamstring).

• Predicted XI: Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Dominguez; Hutchinson, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Gabriel Jesus.

Arsenal:

• Out: Piero Hincapié (Thigh), Riccardo Calafiori (Muscle), Cristhian Mosquera (Ankle).

• Predicted XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyökeres, Martinelli.

Professional Prediction

Given the current form and the significant personnel gaps in the Forest squad due to AFCON and injuries, it is difficult to see anything other than an Arsenal victory. Forest’s home form has been poor (60% loss rate), while Arsenal’s away efficiency is at an all-time high.

The tactical outlook suggests that Forest will attempt to stay compact, but Arsenal’s ability to recycle possession through Zubimendi and Ødegaard will eventually break down the low block. With Arsenal averaging over 2 goals per game and Forest’s defense looking shaky, the “Over 2.5 goals” market is the most lucrative play here.

• Final Score Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 3 Arsenal

• Primary Bet: Arsenal to Win

• Secondary Bet (Value): Over 2.5 Total Goals

• Confidence Rating: 8.5/10