Arsenal vs Kairat Almaty – UEFA Champions League (January 28, 2026)

The Emirates Stadium sets the stage for a “David vs. Goliath” encounter as Arsenal welcomes Kazakh champions Kairat Almaty for the final Matchday of the Champions League group phase. This fixture represents the stark contrast of European football: a North London powerhouse gunning for a historic “perfect eight” wins in the league phase against a Kairat side simply looking to exit their debut campaign with a shred of dignity.

While Arsenal has already secured safe passage to the Round of 16, Mikel Arteta’s men are unlikely to take their foot off the gas. After a recent domestic stumble against Manchester United (3-2), the Gunners will view this as the perfect “get-right” game to restore momentum before the knockout stages begin in February.

In-Depth Analysis

Arsenal: The Pursuit of Perfection

Arsenal enters this match as the only team in the competition with a 100% win record. Their statistical dominance is staggering: 7 games, 7 wins, 20 goals scored, and only 2 conceded. Arteta has built a squad with such depth that even a “rotated” XI—likely featuring Noni Madueke and Leandro Trossard—operates with the same mechanical efficiency as the primary starters.

The tactical focus for this game will be high-frequency chance creation. With Martin Ødegaard pulling the strings and Viktor Gyökeres providing a massive physical presence in the box, Arsenal will look to exploit Kairat’s tendency to collapse under sustained pressure. However, the Gunners will be without Declan Rice and Mikel Merino due to yellow card suspensions, meaning Martín Zubimendi and Christian Nørgaard will likely anchor the midfield.

Kairat Almaty: The Long Road from Almaty

For Kairat, this campaign has been a steep learning curve. Despite being the easternmost team to ever compete in the UCL, they have struggled to adapt to the pace of elite European football. Currently sitting 36th with just one point (a 0-0 draw against Pafos), they hold the league’s worst defensive record, having conceded 19 goals and faced a staggering 58 shots on target.

The Kazakh side will miss their 17-year-old prodigy Dastan Satpayev, who is a major doubt with a thigh injury. Without his pace on the counter-attack, Kairat’s strategy will likely involve a desperate “parking the bus” approach, hoping to keep the scoreline respectable against a team that averages nearly three goals per game.

Head-to-Head (H2H) History

This fixture marks the first-ever competitive meeting between Arsenal and Kairat Almaty. However, historical data offer a clear indicator of the likely outcome:

• Arsenal vs. First-Time Opponents: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last 11 European games against teams they are facing for the first time (W10, D1).

• English Clubs vs. Kazakh Opponents: No Kazakh club has ever won a Champions League match, and the only previous visit by a Kazakh side to England ended in a 1-0 win for Manchester United against Astana in 2019.

• Goal Trends: Arsenal has scored 3+ goals in each of its last five Champions League outings.

Injury & Squad Update

Arsenal:

• Out: Declan Rice (Suspension), Mikel Merino (Suspension), Max Dowman (Ankle).[7]

• Doubtful: William Saliba (Niggle), Jurriën Timber (Load management), Kai Havertz (Knee).

• Predicted XI: Raya; White, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori; Ødegaard, Zubimendi, Nørgaard; Saka, Gyökeres, Martinelli.

Kairat Almaty:

• Out: Azamat Tuyakbayev (Chest).

• Doubtful: Dastan Satpayev (Thigh), Olzhas Baybek (Physical discomfort).

• Predicted XI: Anarbekov; Sorokin, Mata, Martynovich, Shirobokov; Sadybekov, Gromyko, Glazer; Jorginho, Edmilson, Ricardinho.

Professional Prediction

There is no sugarcoating the disparity in quality here. Arsenal is at home, chasing a record-breaking perfect league phase, and possessing a bench that would walk into Kairat’s starting lineup. The main question isn’t if Arsenal wins, but by how many.

Kairat has trailed for more minutes (316) than almost any other team in the competition, and Arsenal typically strikes early at the Emirates. Expect a professional, high-scoring performance from Arsenal, with the team maintaining 70%+ possession and sealing the game before halftime.

• Final Score Prediction: Arsenal 4 – 0 Kairat Almaty

• Primary Bet: Arsenal to Win (Handicap -2.5)

• Secondary Bet: Over 3.5 Total Goals

• Special Tip: Gabriel Martinelli to score anytime (He has scored in all 3 UCL home games this season).

• Confidence Rating: 10/10