The unusual trend defining Arsenal and Man City’s Premier League title battle
As Arsenal players returned to the dressing room after the 2-1 win over Chelsea, Mikel Arteta gave a short speech congratulating them on a hard-fought victory, but with a slight caveat. The Basque told them that they hadn’t handled the last 15 minutes the way he wanted, but that wasn’t a conversation at the moment.
This could well be a conversation that comes up again this season, and not just for Arsenal.
Advertisement
After all, in a normal title race, it would be difficult not to feel that the leaders’ very anxiety will wear them down. Too many games turn into dogfights, too many are played on the sidelines. It’s difficult to maintain. It’s like you’re teetering on the edge so often that you end up failing.
Except Manchester City are exactly the same. Four of their last five Premier League matches have been battles to the finish, apart from a straightforward 3-0 win over Fulham.
That in itself is unusual for a title-chasing Pep Guardiola side.
The mood around City, however, has been different – both away and in discussions with Guardiola’s team – because they are the chasing team, and they have done it before. It’s now about staying in touch rather than staying on top.
Advertisement
Just as perceptions of City have seemingly changed, perceptions of the title race should perhaps change too. It’s all the more serious as the race turns into a run-in, with only 10 match weeks remaining.
This one could actually feature some real twists and turns, in a way that hasn’t really been seen since the 1990s. It’s already been discussed in these pages how this is the most competitive Premier League in a decade.
Winning races are weak. The drubbings are down, with only six matches involving wins by four or more goals. As the first two currently show, so many games are a battle.
And it will have an effect. Besides the mental effect, where the tension of each match gradually erodes your advantage, there is the physical effect. Endgames cannot simply be played by passing the ball around at ease. Key players cannot be removed to reduce their minutes.
Declan Rice and Viktor Gyokeres were taken off in the second half against Chelsea, but how long can Arsenal afford to replace their best players? (Getty Images)
Rather, it’s all about it, all the time, pushing everything to the max in a way unlike most of the Premier League’s recent history, because, for most of the last decade, both champions and challengers have been close to perfection.
Advertisement
The immense financial advantage of Super League clubs, when they had their proper teams, translated into big wins and longer streaks.
The high point was obviously 2018-19, when City and Liverpool collectively dropped just two points from 60 during the run. We probably have to go back to John Stones’ clearance against Liverpool on January 3 to know where the title was really “won”.
The last title race between Arsenal and City was not far from that, however. In 2023-24, they collectively lost seven points over the same period. In total, 17 out of 20 matches were won, with both securing several comfortable victories. Even in 2007-08, Manchester United and Chelsea lost only 13 points out of 60.
Compare that to 1994-95, when the bottom-to-top salary distribution was much lower – 2.85 times versus about 4.5 times today. Blackburn Rovers and United without Eric Cantona lost a collective 24 points out of 60.
Pep Guardiola and his Manchester City side have won previous title races with near-perfect runs, which doesn’t seem likely this year (Getty Images)
A lot more games were so much more edgy. More fallibility created more drama.
Advertisement
Of course, the actual construction of a run-in was also different. Sir Alex Ferguson’s approach before José Mourinho was usually to stay there or thereabouts until the last 10 games and then put his foot down.
They thus obtained 25 points out of the last 30 in 1995-96, and 28 in 2002-03. The performances of their rivals, however, were instructive. Arsène Wenger’s great Arsenal claimed just 18 points in the 2002-03 campaign, going 5-3-2, with Kevin Keegan’s Newcastle United condemned to 17 points and 5-2-3.
And while the Premier League hasn’t exactly returned to those levels of parity, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the congested schedule has offered a counterbalance to financial superiority. The effects of increasing money have been reduced.
It becomes all the more influential because so many matches are so close.
Arsenal’s more favorable schedule could become a factor in the Premier League title decider (Arsenal FC via Getty Images)
Simply put, if you go from a narrow win to a demanding Champions League knockout draw and then to another narrow win, the chances of not doing enough in the next match naturally increase.
Advertisement
Suddenly, that crucial final advantage – the will that so often allows challengers to advance when they need a goal late – is simply no longer there. It’s undermined.
The very monotony of the calendar also works against this. The same goes for the device list itself.
Some at Arsenal still believe they would have won the title in 2023-24 without the Champions League drop. In their first major quarter-final for 14 years, a young team new to the scene put too much emotional intensity into a tough match against Bayern Munich – and one that no one really remembers now – only to not have enough for a 2-0 home defeat to Unai Emery’s Aston Villa.
Some will scoff, but the exact sequence of matches can have an effect. Guardiola and his team would reasonably say that the situation is now reversed for both clubs – starting this weekend. While City face Newcastle United in the FA Cup, Arsenal face Mansfield Town. The Champions League’s new “tennis” system, meanwhile, ensures that City can see a potential run of matches: Real Madrid (a), West Ham (a), Real Madrid (h) Arsenal in the League Cup final, Bayern Munich (h), Chelsea (a), Bayern Munich (a), Arsenal (h), Burnley (a), Liverpool/PSG, Everton (a), Liverpool/PSG, Brentford (h).
Man City’s purchase of Antoine Semenyo in January fueled their title challenge (Getty Images)
Overcome that, especially in a season where so much is demanded of these teams, and the players will deserve every medal that comes their way.
Advertisement
Arsenal’s trips to Sporting or Bodo-Glimt obviously shouldn’t be ruled out, but it’s not disrespectful to say they aren’t as difficult as facing Europe’s superclubs.
Arteta could nevertheless point out how December saw City sign the Premier League’s most sought-after striker, in Antoine Semenyo, and most sought-after defender, in Marc Guehi, to increase a wage bill that last season was £70million more than his own.
The broader point, given how recent games have gone, is that it’s difficult to see even teams as large as these being able to maintain long winning streaks in the Premier League during these periods.
There will probably be some sliding, and maybe some turns.
Advertisement
There will also be big decisions. Should Arsenal, for example, only keep Kai Havertz’s Premier League starts? Could Guardiola have to make similar decisions with Rodri and Erling Haaland?
Regardless, this is why Arteta was so focused on Arsenal’s final 15 minutes against Chelsea to the point that he also discussed it in the press conference. He added that the schedule leaves little time to prepare.
He and Guardiola discussed it privately among themselves.
On Wednesday, there is even a rare situation where both teams start at the same time. It’s a return to the 1990s, in a season that could still see a few more.