Using StatsHub to analyze the possibility of a trade with Giannis
On Wednesday, Shams Charania reported that two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is “ready for a new home” and that the Milwaukee Bucks have begun listening to trade offers for their franchise icon. Entering play Wednesday, Milwaukee had lost three straight games and finished in a tie for 11th place in the Eastern Conference – 3.5 games shy of the final play-in spot. With the NBA trade deadline set for February 5, the Bucks don’t have much time to evaluate the market for Antetokounmpo, but it’s hard not to imagine how a trade of this magnitude could reshape the competitive landscape for the rest of the season. Using FTN’s new NBA StatsHub, let’s take a closer look at what Antetokounmpo would bring to a new team and what type of offensive environment best maximizes his impact.
What Giannis actually brings to the field
We know that Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA’s biggest stars: He’s one of 15 players in league history to win multiple MVP awards. However, it is important to define what he will bring to his new team beyond his reputation and past accolades. Since the pandemic, Antetokounmpo is one of only three players in the NBA to average 25+ points, 10+ rebounds and 5+ assists in a single season – the others being Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid. Only Antetokounmpo and Jokic have accomplished a similar feat multiple times in that span. Any team that acquired Antetokounmpo would simply not be paying for his past contributions. This season, Antetokounmpo is one of 14 players averaging more than 25 points per game while also posting a better-than-expected field goal percentage of +3.0%. Only Antetokounmpo and Jokić are averaging at least 8.0 rebounds per game from that group of players. In practical terms, this means Antetokounmpo is not As soon as a high-volume scorer: He’s making a higher percentage of difficult shots than the league average, even after adjusting for shot location, shot value and the quality of defense played on those attempts. That combination of volume AND efficiency is rare. Considering he’s also a skilled passer and one of the best rebounders in the game, it becomes easy to see how a player of Antetokounmpo’s caliber can immediately elevate a good team into the championship conversation, especially if that team has the right offensive pieces around him.
Announcement
Which championship contender has the most to offer for Antetokounmpo?
Back in October, Antetokounmpo told the media, “I want to win another championship. I want to win another medal for the national team. Legacy is very important to me… You have to play to win. I don’t play to be there and get paid.” If we only look at potential destinations that could put Antetokounmpo in a championship-level environment, the team that has the most to offer the Bucks may be the least motivated to acquire him. The Thunder have the most draft capital in the NBA over the next three seasons, as well as a roster full of impressive young stars, like Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins, who could potentially thrive in bigger roles or serve as cost-controlled rotation pieces. However, Oklahoma City currently leads the league in Net Rating by a substantial margin and proved last summer that its current core is capable of winning a title as currently constructed. As a result, it seems highly unlikely that the Thunder will engage in serious trade talks for Antetokounmpo.
More realistic landing spots
Assuming the Thunder aren’t interested, the two most logical landing spots for Antetokounmpo appear to be the Knicks or the Heat. The Knicks won the NBA Cup this season, but have plateaued since then. Over their last 21 games, they are ranked 18th in Net Rating and own a 10-11 record. Miami is 11-10 in that span, ranking 17th in Net Rating, and for years has been vocal about trying to acquire a cornerstone franchise player via free agency or trade. When the Bucks were at their peak in 2021 and 2022, they surrounded Antetokounmpo with great perimeter shooting. As a team, Milwaukee ranked fifth in 3-point% in the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasons. Simply put, Antetokounmpo is at his best when surrounded by above-average shooters who can maintain offensive spacing. Looking at NBA StatsHub, the Knicks appear to have a more suitable roster structure to acquire Antetokounmpo. They currently rank third in the NBA in 3-point percentage as a team and have four players with an FGOE +3.0% attempting at least 3.0 shots from beyond the arc per game. Meanwhile, the Heat rank 11th in 3-point%, with Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins among the only consistently capable perimeter shooters they could surround Antetokounmpo with. The Heat also finished under .500 last year and haven’t made it out of the first round of the playoffs since 2023 — they’re probably a piece or two closer, beyond Antetokounmpo, from being a legitimate title contender.
Announcement
Because a trade for Giannis might not happen…yet
That said, it’s entirely possible that Antetokounmpo won’t be traded before next week’s February 5 deadline. Milwaukee does not control its first-round draft picks from 2027 to 2031, which will likely require them to receive a package in return that would allow them to remain competitive immediately. According to Yossi Gozlan, the Bucks could also get more capital from both New York and Miami if they waited until this offseason, rather than rushing a trade in the next seven days.
The takeaway
A Giannis Antetokounmpo trade would be one of the most seismic moves in recent NBA history, but whether or not it happens before the Feb. 5 trade deadline remains an open question. What is clear, using FTN’s NBA StatsHub, is that Antetokounmpo’s value extends far beyond star power. In the right offensive environment, built on shooting efficiency and adequate spacing, he could immediately elevate a franchise into the championship conversation.