Who’s in danger and who’s got the hardest fixtures?

Football writer Ben McAleer examines the state of affairs at the bottom of the table, with a group of clubs fighting to avoid the drop.

We are approaching the final part of the Premier League season as teams from both ends of the table look for glory and consolidation. At the bottom, clubs are trying hard to avoid falling into the Championship.

The final three will ply their trade in the English second division next season. As things stand, these would be Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley, as well as West Ham United who currently sit in 18th place. However, there is still a lot to play for between now and May, with more twists and turns to come.

Burnley and Wolves need an extraordinary turnaround

The wolves’ situation looks perilous. Rob Edwards’ side have just nine points from 26 matches and find themselves 18 points adrift of safety with 12 games remaining. For a team that has just one league win this season, they would need at least six more wins to give themselves a chance of staying at the top.

Burnley are in a stronger position, having picked up 18 points following their surprise 3-2 win at Crystal Palace, a result which ended a 16-match winless streak, but they still have to make up a nine-point gap on 17th-placed Nottingham Forest.

The Clarets effectively need to double their win tally to continue playing Premier League football next season. It would take an extraordinary turnaround for the bottom two to start the 2026/27 campaign as top teams.

Can Tudor stop Spurs’ slide?

Assuming Burnley and Wolves have left themselves too far behind to stay up, the question now becomes who looks most likely to join them in the bottom three at the end of May? Just six points separate 15th-placed Leeds United from 18th-placed West Ham, with Tottenham Hotspur and Forest sandwiched between the duo.

Spurs are the standout team of the quartet, winners of last season’s UEFA Europa League and one of six clubs still in the Premier League. West Ham and Forest have flirted with relegation at times, while Leeds were early season favorites to return to the Championship.

Based on their recent form, it’s Spurs who look set to lose this dogfight. The north London side are yet to win a league game in 2026, have won just two of their last 17 games and next face league leaders and rivals Arsenal.

Spurs will be hoping for a “bounce from a new manager” as they host the Gunners on Sunday February 22, having relieved Thomas Frank of his duties, with Igor Tudor taking charge for the remainder of the season.

West Ham and Leeds in good form but Forest short of goals

A 2-1 home defeat to West Ham was one of the deciding factors that effectively sealed Frank’s fate. The Hammers looked firmly stuck in the bottom three earlier in the year, but Nuno Espirito Santo has since overseen three wins from five, including the aforementioned win over Spurs. The appointment of Paco Jemez as first-team coach has gone virtually unnoticed and has not received the credit it deserves.

Leeds also get a strange result which will boost their hopes of avoiding an immediate return to the Championship. A 2-2 draw at Chelsea, where they came back from 2-0 down, could prove crucial in the long term. Daniel Farke’s side have lost just two of their last 13 matches. Conversely, they have only won four times in this period, including once against relegation rivals Forest.

Forest moved three points clear of the drop zone, albeit with a 0-0 draw at home to Wolves, despite 35 shots on goal. For some, this represents two points lost rather than one gained. It was a result that cost Sean Dyche his job, although it gave Forest a modicum of respite in this relegation fight.

Who has the toughest matches?

This respite could be vital in taking into account the difficulty of their remaining matches using Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), a resource which has long been useful to Fantasy Premier League managers when planning their future transfers.

FDR is based on a complex algorithm developed by FPL experts and ranks matches by difficulty on a sliding scale from one (easiest) to five (hardest).

By adding up each club’s remaining FDR scores and dividing them by 12 (the number of matches remaining), we can measure which club has the trickiest run.

And with an FDR average of 3.08, it is West Ham who seem to have the toughest run of matches to end the season.

The Hammers play three matches over the next 12 weeks at a difficulty level of four (out of five), as they take on Manchester City And Arsenal at home, and Newcastle United away, with the latter outings taking place in two of the final three weeks of the season.

Nuno’s side also have just three matches with an FDR rating of two or less as they face Wolves, Everton and Leeds at the London Stadium between now and May.

Forest, meanwhile, are slightly better in their FDR, averaging 3.00 for the next 12 games. They face Liverpool and Man City over the next three weeks, with both opponents offering a difficulty level of four. Additionally, only two of Forest’s remaining matches have a rating of two: the home games against Fulham and Burnley.

With the last eight games each rated three, Vitor Pereira – named new head coach at the City Ground on Sunday – is set for a tough start to life at Nottingham.

Finally, Leeds and Spurs boast an average FDR of 2.83, which is a bonus considering they sit six and five points above the relegation zone respectively.

The latest matches of Leeds, Spurs, Forest and West Ham

Spurs have a tough run of away games to round off a disappointing season, including trips to Anfield, where they have not won since 2011, and Stamford Bridge, where they have won just once in Premier League history, to face Liverpool and Chelsea respectively.

Conversely, four of their remaining 12 games have an FDR of two or less, and two of them are against relegation rivals Forest and Leeds. Similarly, Leeds have four matches remaining with an FDR of two or less, while only two of the last 12 are rated four or more.

All four teams will be looking to break the magical 40-point barrier, which is often considered the number of points needed to stay up.

That said, the 40-point mark doesn’t necessarily have to be exceeded for teams to keep their heads above water. In fact, in 2002/03 West Ham were the last club to be relegated with at least 40 points. Eight teams – most recently Everton in 2022/23 – have avoided relegation with 36 points, while West Bromwich Albion in 2004/05 remained with the fewest points in Premier League history (34) as the Baggies achieved the ‘Great Escape’.

For context, West Ham are on track to finish with 35 points, based on their points per game ratio after 26 matches. However, this does not take into account their recent improvement in form: only Chelsea (13), Manchester United (13) and AFC Bournemouth (11) can improve on their 10 points over the last five weeks.

The Hammers will need to maintain that momentum though, given they appear to have the toughest schedule to complete the campaign.