Why more points than usual are needed for Premier League safety

We have rarely seen a relegation fight like it. The quest for Premier League safety looks set to go down to the wire and it could be the case that a record amount of points is required to avoid dropping into the Championship.

West Ham United currently occupy 18th, the final relegation spot, and have 36 points from their 36 matches. Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers have already had their relegation confirmed.

Tottenham Hotspur are two points and one place above West Ham, after drawing 1-1 at home to Leeds United on Monday.

In recent Premier League seasons, both Spurs and West Ham would be breathing easy by now with their respective points tallies of 38 and 36.

No team have gone down with 36 or more points since Newcastle United were relegated with 37 in 2015/16.

In fact, across all the campaigns since the Premier League was reduced from 22 to 20 teams in 1995, the average points tally for the team finishing in 17th place, safe from relegation, is 34.5.

When it comes to the number of points clubs should aim for in order to stay in the Premier League, 40 has often been cited as “the magic number.” But 40 has only actually been needed on one occasion in the past 30 seasons since 1995/96 — in 2010/11, when Wolves stayed up with 40 and Birmingham City went down with 39.

Therefore, whichever team — Spurs or West Ham — go down in 18th place this season, they will do so with one of the highest points totals of a relegated team in Premier League history.

The club who currently hold that record in a 38-match season are West Ham. They were relegated from the Premier League after finishing with 42 points in 2002/03.

That season, the Hammers lost only one of their last 11 games, and earned more points in their last eight than any other relegated team in Premier League history (15).

The next-highest points tally for a relegated team is 40, recorded by Sunderland in 1996/97 and Bolton Wanderers in 1997/98.

The quality of this season’s relegation fight is in sharp contrast to last year, when Leicester City went down in 18th place with only 25 points — 11 points fewer than West Ham have now in 18th place, with two matches still to play.

Leicester were 13 points adrift of safety, with Spurs occupying 17th place — as they do currently.

The Foxes were the third team in five years to finish third-bottom with fewer than 30 points, following Luton Town with 26 in 2023/24 and Fulham with 28 in 2020/21.

This year, the two teams now fighting to avoid filling the final relegation place have been in contrasting form in the past two Matchweeks.

West Ham have only lost three of their most recent eight matches but two of those defeats have come back to back, with Sunday’s 1-0 loss to Arsenal following on from their 3-0 reverse at Brentford.

Spurs won at Aston Villa last weekend to record back-to-back victories in the Premier League for the first time since August. The two wins either side of draws at home to Brighton & Hove Albion and Leeds means they have collected eight points from the 12 available in those four games.

Spurs have a two-point gap to West Ham with both teams having two matches remaining.

Remaining fixtures