Why more points than usual are needed for safety
Spurs or West Ham could go down from the Premier League with the highest points tally of any relegated side in the last 10 years
We have rarely seen a Premier League relegation fight like the one between Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United.
Whichever of the London clubs drops into the Championship is likely to do so with the most points of any relegated team since 2015/16, when Newcastle United went down with a tally of 37.
West Ham currently occupy 18th place, the final relegation spot, and have 36 points from their 37 matches. Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers have already had their relegation confirmed.
Spurs are two points and one place above their relegation rivals, after losing their penultimate match 2-1 at Chelsea on Tuesday. A win there would have made them mathematically safe.
Average number of points needed to stay up
In most Premier League seasons, both Spurs and West Ham would be breathing easy by now with their respective points tallies of 38 and 36.
Since the Premier League was reduced from 22 to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points tally for the team finishing in 17th place, safe from relegation, is 34.5.
The number of points clubs should aim for in order to stay in the Premier League — “the magic number” — is often said to be 40. But this tally has only been needed in one of the 30 seasons since 1995/96 — in 2010/11, when Wolves stayed up with 40 and Birmingham City went down with 39.
Record points total for relegated teams
The club who currently hold that record in a 38-match season are West Ham. They were relegated from the Premier League after finishing with 42 points in 2002/03.
That season, the Hammers lost only one of their last 11 games, and earned more points in their last eight than any other relegated team in Premier League history (15).
The next-highest points tally for a relegated team is 40, recorded by Sunderland in 1996/97 and Bolton Wanderers in 1997/98.
Relegation battle much closer than last season
The quality of this season’s relegation fight is in sharp contrast to last year, when Leicester City went down in 18th place with only 25 points — 11 points fewer than West Ham have now in 18th place, with one match still to play.
Leicester were 13 points adrift of safety, with Spurs occupying 17th place — as they do currently.
The Foxes were the third team in five years to finish 18th with fewer than 30 points, following Luton Town with 26 in 2023/24 and Fulham with 28 in 2020/21.
Which of the relegation rivals is in the best form?
The two teams who are fighting to avoid filling the final relegation place have been in contrasting form recently.
West Ham have been beaten in three consecutive matches since their last win, 2-1 against Everton on 25 April. Sunday’s 3-1 loss at Newcastle for Nuno Espirito Santo’s team followed their 1-0 home defeat to league leaders Arsenal and 3-0 reverse at Brentford.
Spurs’ four-match unbeaten run came to an end against Chelsea. Prior to that defeat, they had drawn twice at home, to Brighton & Hove Albion and Leeds, either side of back-to-back away victories over Midlands clubs Wolves and Aston Villa.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side have therefore picked up eight of the last 15 points they were playing for, while West Ham have collected only four points in the same period.