Fact or fiction: The Thunder won the trade deadline
Each week during the 2025-26 NBA season, we’ll delve into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an effort to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction going forward.
Last week: LeBron James belongs in the All-Star Game
Fact or fiction: The Thunder won the trade deadline
If no one improved dramatically at the NBA’s 2026 trade deadline, did the Oklahoma City Thunder — the betting favorites for this year’s championship, before and after — win?
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There have been more winners and losers, of course, but in terms of title image – what really matters this season – can anyone match the reigning champions in terms of talent?
After all, the Thunder were the only serious contender — and the only team with a winning record, in fact — to trade a first-round draft pick at the deadline. They traded one of their many first-round picks (probably the one belonging to the Houston Rockets in fourth place), along with a trio of second-rounders, to the Philadelphia 76ers for Jared McCain, who was in the Rookie of the Year conversation last season before surgery on a torn left meniscus.
McCain has averaged 14-4-4 (on 39/38/88 shooting times) per 36 minutes, almost entirely off the bench, for the Sixers in 37 appearances this season. It will be difficult for him to crack a guard rotation that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell, although injuries to SGA (now out of the All-Star break with an abdominal strain) and Mitchell (hip) have left the door open for additional contributions.
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And McCain could contribute. Before his knee injury he was averaging a much more efficient 21.4 points per 36 minutes and will remain on a rookie contract through the 2027-28 season. The Thunder must have valued him more than anyone they thought they could get with Houston’s pick, and for good reason. McCain is good. It may not significantly alter their championship chances, but they were already the team to beat and went deeper.
(Of course, all of this depends on the health of Gilgeous-Alexander, as with any team and its superstar. Let’s not pretend that McCain is some kind of SGA insurance. He could help in the absence of Mitchell, who hardly played in last year’s title run, and other guards.)
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And if the Thunder are willing to spend a first-round pick to go deeper, then shouldn’t everyone else looking for the defending champions be willing to spend even more?
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Well, not so fast. The Thunder own a dozen first-round picks in the intervening years, as many as any other team, and that’s what makes them so unique. They both built the best roster and compiled the most assets, all at the same time.
In fact, the Thunder own the Los Angeles Clippers’ 2026 first-round pick and just traded two of their three best players — James Harden and Ivica Zubac — for a collection that includes Darius Garland, Bennedict Mathurin and multiple picks in each round of the draft. They’re all but guaranteed to hand-deliver a lottery win to the Thunder in June. Another reason why the Thunder may have won the deadline.
It’s just nobody tried to feel better. It’s just that no contender has made a big step forward.
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The Minnesota Timberwolves scored Ayo Dosunmu from the Chicago Bulls for a package that included Rob Dillingham and four second-round picks. Dosunmu is very good, posting 21-4-5 on 51/45/85 shooting times(!) per 36 minutes, mostly off the bench, for Chicago.
Dosunmu delves into a playoff team that includes Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid. They were already capable of giving the Thunder a series, as their 2-1 record against OKC indicates, and with Dosunmu in place of 38-year-old Mike Conley they’re a little further back at the back of their rotation.
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The Timberwolves failed in their supposed pursuits of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant. Three of the biggest names who jumped the deadline — Anthony Davis, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young — have joined the Washington Wizards and Utah Jazz, two teams that have a strong incentive (with only top-eight protected picks) to miss the rest of the year.
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(The Jazz owe their pick to the Thunder if it falls between 9 and 30.)
The other big name, Harden, joined a Cleveland Cavaliers team that was looking up in the Eastern Conference standings against the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. It was a gamble on a 36-year-old against the health of a 26-year-old, and it’s unclear whether it made the Cavaliers any better than the second-round playoff fodder they were in 2025.
The Pistons, Knicks and Celtics all moved to the sidelines, turning Jaden Ivey, Guerschon Yabusele and Anfernee Simons into Kevin Huerter, Jose Alvarado and Nikola Vučević, respectively. While all of these agreements extend their rotation, none of them bridge what is perceived as a significant gap between the East and anyone emerging from the West.
By the way, neither the Denver Nuggets nor the San Antonio Spurs – arguably the Thunder’s two biggest threats when healthy – made any moves before the deadline. Likewise, the Rockets, who were already on the verge of serious contention, with injuries to both Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, did nothing to further strengthen the roster.
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The Los Angeles Lakers, the most fringe title contenders, turned two-way guard Gabe Vincent and a second-round pick into sharpshooter Luke Kennard, and it’s hard to see how that move helps their 24th-ranked defense. Maybe they just stun OKC on offense.
In reality, though, while there are only a handful of challengers who could upset the Thunder, none of them have closed the gap on the current betting favorites. While this doesn’t guarantee the defending champions a repeat, it does allow them to breathe a sigh of relief, as they are now assured of taking their talent to the playoffs, if healthy.
Determination: done. The Thunder won the deadline.