NBA Panic Meter Power Rankings: Which teams should be most worried about in the first round and moving forward?
The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs was so wild that it required some power rankings one way or another. We can’t stand by and watch as the top-seeded Detroit Pistons risk losing in the opening round or Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets risk elimination. We need to order them, putting some order into the chaos.
So, we settled on the Panic Meter Power Ranking, ordering the 16 teams from least to most concerned about their first-round series, the future, and everything.
The defending NBA champions hold a 3-0 lead against the eighth seed. It would be shocking if they lost a match in the first round. That said, they aren’t free of concern, as Jalen Williams suffers week after week with a left hamstring strain. Not that they need him against Phoenix. But hamstring strains are no joke. They tend to persist, especially for those who have suffered persistent injuries throughout the season.
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The Celtics won both games in Philadelphia, including Game 4, by 32 points – their second 32-point win of the series – and took a 3-1 lead back in Boston on Tuesday. Looks like it’s shaping up to be OKC/Boston. The most likely outcome, it seems, and BetMGM agrees, is for the final two champions to meet in the NBA Finals. This hasn’t happened since 2018.
Spurs lead 3-1 and the only one they missed was when Victor Wembanyama hit his chin on the hardwood, suffering a concussion. Now he’s back, stronger than ever, finishing +28 in 34 minutes of a decisive victory in Game 4. Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are incredible. They are the best young core in the game, and that includes the Thunder. They just need to keep Wemby healthy.
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The Lakers should hope that Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves return soon, because if Kevin Durant beats them, the Rockets could get an outcome that Los Angeles wants no part of. And yes, I’m implying that they could become the first team to lose a series if they lead 3-0. These Rockets have it in for them if they can just catch fire, but the return of Dončić or Reaves should pour some water on them.
What do the Blazers have to worry about? Sure, they’ll lose to the Spurs, probably in five games. But no one had imagined them for the second round anyway. Many people didn’t even have them written down for the seventh suit. But Deni Avdija is a playoff player, as his downhill game translates to a postseason style of play. And they also have defense. They just need one more (large) piece. Will the new owner spend to get it?
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The Magic were considered dead two weeks ago. Coach Jamahl Mosley would definitely be fired. But they resurrected themselves. They dominated the Hornets in the second game of the tournament and stole a 2-1 lead against the top-seeded Pistons in the first round, looking a lot like the team everyone expected at the start of the season, tough and tight-knit. Will one upset be enough to save Mosley’s job?
The Suns have exceeded expectations all season. They just met a Thunder team that is deeper and better constructed. They found something in Jordan Ott, a coach who instilled a winning culture when there was none. The same goes for Dillon Brooks. He brought an attitude to this team. Now they need more talent. How they achieve that without control of draft picks and without much financial flexibility is another question.
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The Raptors managed to even things up in the first-round series with the Cavaliers, and that’s all anyone could ask for in Toronto, where they have a lot of good players and not one great one. Giannis Antetokounmpo, anyone? The Blazers, who are expected to aspire to the two-time MVP, will have competition for his services. But first Toronto must finish a first-round series, where a win would be the gravy of a healthy season.
The Hawks, without Trae Young, who they traded for scraps, are locked in a 2-2 series with the third-seeded Knicks. One of those discards was the expiring contract of CJ McCollum, who earned a new contract in Atlanta. Could be They be a suitor for Giannis? The playoffs have certainly revived the market for the superstar’s services. Can the Hawks recover from their Game 4 blowout to further extend their audition?
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The Sixers performed as well as could be expected, given that they weren’t even guaranteed a playoff spot. They have been largely without Joel Embiid, whose contract may be the worst in the league. He returned for Game 4, but his inability to play defense two weeks after an appendectomy wasn’t a shock. Philadelphia continues to ride with Embiid, for better or worse. Mostly worse.
6.New York Knicks
The Knicks, whose owner James Dolan has issued a Finals-or-elimination ultimatum this season, do not appear to be serious title contenders, as they are stuck with the Hawks for four games. Coach Mike Brown’s offense falters at times, and there are inherent defensive issues in the pick-and-roll combination of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. They have limits and they are hitting them.
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Yes, the Timberwolves have a 3-1 lead over the Nuggets. And yes, they played terrifying defense against the 2023 NBA champions. But they lost Donte DiVincenzo for the rest of the season to a torn Achilles tendon and Anthony Edwards for several weeks to a knee injury. Games 5 and 7 will be held in Denver. Even if they manage to survive, what chance do they have of competing against San Antonio sans Edwards?
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert hasn’t issued an ultimatum, but everyone knows about the deal. If this core fails to reach the Conference Finals, they will have no chance of staying together next season. They’ve already replaced 26-year-old Darius Garland with 36-year-old James Harden, and if that doesn’t work out – especially if the Cavs lose in the first round – it could spell disaster in Cleveland. Yet, three teams fare worse.
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Barring the first-ever comeback from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA series, the Rockets will lose to a Lakers team missing both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. It’s a shame to lose to 41-year-old LeBron James, even though Kevin Durant missed three of the four games in the series. Big changes are on the horizon in Houston. Could coach Ime Udoka be the first to go if eliminated in the first round?
2.Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets lost Game 4 to a Timberwolves team that lost DiVincenzo and Edwards to injury earlier in the evening, leaving them trailing 3-1 in their series. They still have a chance, but they’re too dependent on Aaron Gordon’s health to seriously consider taking on the challenge of Minnesota, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. They are letting Jokić down and this can’t happen. Big change in Denver too?
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1. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons had a flaw and couldn’t fix it. They could have gone after Michael Porter Jr., or Lauri Markkanen, or someone who could create when defenses collapse on Cade Cunningham. But they played their team, and now they’re facing a 2-1 deficit against an Orlando team that looked better than them. Could the East overtake the Pistons without them ever having a chance to compete?