Soccer Prediction For Today, Friday 5th December – Benfica vs Sporting CP
⚽ Match Preview: S.L. Benfica vs. Sporting CP
Competition: Liga Portugal Betclic (Matchweek 13)
Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
Kick-off: 20:15 WET (Local Time) / 20:15 GMT
Venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
Match: Benfica vs Sporting CP
 Benfica | Match Time & Date: 21:15 Advertisements
05/12/2025 Tips: Home or Away (12) | Sporting CP |
The Context: O Dérbi Eterno in the Mourinho Era
The eyes of the football world turn to Lisbon this Friday night for one of the most intense rivalries on the planet: O Dérbi Eterno. The narrative for this specific iteration of the derby is heavier than usual, dominated by one man: José Mourinho. Since taking charge of Benfica at the start of the 2025/26 campaign, “The Special One” has injected a new level of pragmatism and steel into the Eagles, looking to dethrone a Sporting CP side that has dominated Portuguese football for the last two years.
Benfica enters this match sitting 3rd in the table but unbeaten at home. The Estádio da Luz has become a fortress again, and the team’s defensive organization—a Mourinho trademark—will be tested against the league’s most potent attack. A win here is non-negotiable if they want to leapfrog their rivals before the winter break.
Sporting CP, led by the tactically astute Rui Borges (who has seamlessly continued the legacy of the Amorim era), arrives as the league leaders. The Lions are a ferocious attacking unit, having scored 31 goals in 12 matches. They are playing with the swagger of champions, unbeaten in their last five league outings, including a demolition of Estrela last weekend. For Sporting, a win at the Luz would be a massive statement of intent to retain their crown.
Head-to-Head (H2H) History
Recent history in the derby has been incredibly tight, though Sporting has held the psychological edge in crucial moments over the last 18 months.
Recent Meetings (Simulated/Projected):
May 2025: Benfica 1-1 Sporting CP (Championship decided on this day)
Jan 2025: Sporting CP 1-0 Benfica (Taça da Liga Semi-Final)
Dec 2024: Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica (Liga Portugal)
Apr 2024: Sporting CP 2-1 Benfica (Liga Portugal)
Key Trend: The “Home Advantage” has eroded recently; Sporting has won or drawn on 3 of their last 4 visits to the Estádio da Luz.
Goal Glut: The intensity often leads to goals. 4 of the last 6 meetings have seen Both Teams Score (BTTS).
Tactical Analysis
Benfica: The Mourinho Low Block & Transition
Under Mourinho, Benfica has moved away from “total football” to “winning football.”
Defensive Shape: Expect a rigid 4-2-3-1 or a 3-at-the-back hybrid depending on Sporting’s lineup. The key battle will be Florentino Luís or Leandro Barreiro stifling Sporting’s creative midfield hub (Pedro Gonçalves).
The Counter: Benfica will likely cede possession (expecting ~40%) and look to exploit the space behind Sporting’s wing-backs. The pace of Kerem Aktürkoğlu or the finishing of Vangelis Pavlidis in transition will be their primary route to goal.
Sporting CP: Overloads and Verticality
Rui Borges has maintained the 3-4-3 system but added more verticality.
Wing Play: Sporting’s game relies on overloading the wide areas. Geny Catamo and Nuno Santos (if fit) act as auxiliary wingers, stretching Benfica’s backline to create channels for the inside forwards like Trincão.
High Line Risk: To suffocate Benfica, Sporting will play a high defensive line. This is high-risk against a Mourinho team designed to punish exactly that setup.
The “12” Prediction (Any Team to Win)
This is the sharpest professional angle for this match. Derbies of this magnitude, especially with Mourinho involved, rarely drift into passive draws.
No Truce: Benfica needs to win to close the gap; a draw does them no favors in the title race. They will push for a winner late on if it’s tied.
Styles Make Fights: We have a clash of “Elite Defense” (Benfica) vs. “Elite Attack” (Sporting). Usually, one style breaks the other. Either Sporting’s attack overwhelms Benfica early (0-2 scenario), or Benfica plays a perfect counter-attacking game (1-0/2-0 scenario).
Statistical anomaly: In the last 10 league derbies at the Luz, draws are statistically the least common outcome compared to a decisive result.
Official Prediction
While the bookmakers might lean slightly towards Sporting due to form, the “Mourinho Factor” in a big derby at home cannot be underestimated. However, Sporting’s firepower is almost impossible to keep clean for 90 minutes. We expect a chaotic, high-energy game where both teams land blows.
Primary Prediction: Any Team to Win (12)
Reasoning: The “Draw” option is the trap here. The game state will force a winner.
Goal Market: Over 2.5 Goals
Reasoning: Sporting is averaging 2.5 goals per game alone. Benfica will be forced to score to keep up.
Correct Score Prediction: Benfica 1 – 2 Sporting CP OR Benfica 2 – 1 Sporting CP.
Pro Tip: Watch the Pedro Gonçalves (Pote) markets for “To Score or Assist.” He consistently performs in the derby.