Portsmouth vs Arsenal: FA Cup 3rd Round Match Preview, Analysis & Prediction

Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
Kick-off: 16:30 GMT
Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Competition: FA Cup (3rd Round Proper)

Portsmouth

Match Time & Date: 21:00 11/01/2026 Tips: Over 1.5 Advertisements VIEW PREDICTIONS

Arsenal

The Setup: A Classic Cup Tie at Fratton Park

The magic of the FA Cup returns to the South Coast this Sunday as Championship side Portsmouth hosts Premier League giants Arsenal at a sold-out Fratton Park. For the hosts, this is a distraction from a grueling league campaign; for the visitors, it is the first step toward reclaiming a trophy they have won a record 14 times.

While the romance of the cup suggests a potential upset, the tactical reality paints a different picture. Arsenal arrives with one of the most robust squads in world football, while Pompey is currently licking their wounds after a difficult festive period in the Championship.

Match Preview & Team News

Portsmouth (The Hosts):
Portsmouth’s return to the Championship has been a test of endurance. Manager John Mousinho has done admirably to stabilize the club in the second tier, but recent form has been alarming. Coming off a demoralizing 5-0 thrashing away to Bristol City on New Year’s Day and a scrappy draw with Sheffield Wednesday, confidence in the backline is fragile.

Defensively, Pompey has struggled against pace—a weakness Arsenal is uniquely equipped to exploit. With key midfielder Marlon Pack aging and the squad stretched by the winter schedule, Portsmouth will likely rely on a low block and set-pieces to threaten the Gunners.

Arsenal (The Visitors):
Mikel Arteta’s side enters this fixture in the thick of a Premier League title race. Having just played a high-intensity fixture against Liverpool on January 8th, rotation is inevitable. However, Arsenal’s “B-team” is now arguably stronger than most Premier League starting XIs.

Expect to see minutes for squad players who are hungry to prove a point. The likes of Jakub Kiwior, Ethan Nwaneri, and Fabio Vieira (if available/rotated in) should feature. Even with changes, Arsenal’s system remains fluid, pressing high and dominating possession. The Gunners have not lost an FA Cup 3rd round tie against lower-league opposition in over a decade, a streak Arteta takes seriously.

Tactical Analysis

• Arsenal’s Overloads vs. Pompey’s Low Block:
  Portsmouth will likely sit deep in a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 formation to deny space. Arsenal’s solution to this is quick switch-of-play passes and isolating wingers 1v1. If Portsmouth doubles up on the wings, space will open centrally for Arsenal’s late-arriving midfielders.

• The Transition Threat:
  Portsmouth’s best chance lies in transition, but Arsenal’s counter-pressing is elite. If Arsenal turns the ball over, they usually recover it within 6 seconds. If Portsmouth cannot bypass that first wave of pressure, they will be pinned in their own third for 90 minutes.

• Defensive Frailty:
  Portsmouth has conceded 1.8 goals per match in their last five outings. Against an Arsenal attack that averages over 2.0 goals per game across all competitions, this defensive porosity is the deciding factor.

Head-to-Head (H2H) History

History heavily favors the North London side. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last 22 meetings with Portsmouth across all competitions.

• Last Meeting (FA Cup 2020): Portsmouth 0-2 Arsenal

• Historical Trend: Arsenal has won 5 of the last 6 encounters.

• Fratton Park Record: The last time Portsmouth beat Arsenal at home in a competitive fixture was back in 1958.

Key H2H Stat: Arsenal has kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 trips to Fratton Park.

Expert Prediction

The disparity in quality here is too wide to ignore. While Fratton Park is a hostile environment, Arsenal’s current squad is built to control chaos. Portsmouth’s recent heavy defeat to Bristol City suggests their defensive structure is currently broken, and Arsenal—even with a rotated squad—is ruthless against disorganized defenses.

The market value is on Arsenal winning comfortably. We expect the Gunners to control 70%+ possession, wear down the hosts by the 60th minute, and score multiple goals.

Prediction: Portsmouth 0 – 3 Arsenal

Betting Tips & Best Value

For the “Pro” bettor, the moneyline on Arsenal is too short to offer value. Instead, we look at the handicap and goal markets.

• Primary Prediction: Arsenal -1.5 Asian Handicap (Arsenal to win by 2 or more goals).

  • Reasoning: Portsmouth has leaked 5 goals in a single recent game; Arsenal has the firepower to clear this margin easily.

• Alternative Tip: Arsenal to Score in Both Halves.

  • Reasoning: Arsenal often starts fast in cup games to kill the “hope” of the underdog early.

• Correct Score: 0-3 or 0-4 to Arsenal.

Final Verdict: Take Arsenal -1.5 with confidence. The gap between a mid-table Championship defense and the Premier League elite is substantial, especially on January 11th, 2026, as Arsenal looks to make a statement.