NBA Play-In Predictions: Heat-Hornets? Trail Blazers-Suns? Our opinion on who will advance
The 2026 NBA postseason is here! The play-in tournament begins Tuesday with two high-stakes matchups.
In the East, a pair of Southeast Division rivals will face off in an elimination game, as the No. 9 seed Charlotte Hornets host the No. 10 seed Miami Heat. The winner will advance with a chance to earn the No. 1 seed. 8 Friday against the Philadelphia 76ers or Orlando Magic. The loser will go home.
Announcement
In the West, the No. 7 seed Phoenix Suns will host the No. 8 seed Portland Trail Blazers in a battle of teams that has exceeded expectations this season. The winner will earn the No. 1 seed. 7 in the playoffs and a first-round series with the San Antonio Spurs. The loser will have one last chance to earn a playoff berth on Friday in a matchup with the LA Clippers or Golden State Warriors.
Who will advance on Tuesday? Our writers analyze the matches and make their choices.
What is your opinion on the Heat-Hornets?
Morten Stig Jensen: This will be an extremely difficult test for Miami. Both the Heat and Hornets are interesting offensive units in the sense that Miami has been running like crazy all season, and the Hornets have become one of the most efficient 3-point shooting teams in all of basketball.
Announcement
This is also where they differ. Miami is, at best, a middling 3-point shooting team, and if you think the Heat can make up for that with an elite conversion rate from their main big, Bam Adebayo, think again. Adebayo has hit just 44.2% of his total shots this season, leaving little path for the Heat to gain an offensive advantage elsewhere on the court.
If they get into a running game with the Hornets, that might not work to their advantage, which further highlights the need for Miami to get back to what they are primarily known for: gritty defense. However, this was not as fundamental a calling card as in the past.
Kelly Iko: It is a pleasant surprise that a game of play can produce such a high-level coaching meeting. The tactical battle between Charles Lee and Erik Spoelstra is as enticing as I haven’t seen in a while at this early juncture.
Announcement
This game simply boils down to pace, pressing and skill. One reason Charlotte has been an elite offensive unit — third in offensive rating and sixth in half-court efficiency since the trade deadline — is its ability to play at its own pace. The Hornets are 29th in pace since the All-Star break and 28th in possession. They move the ball, probe and prod until they find the shot They I want to take.
There’s a problem, though. If you force the Hornets to speed up, they will generate just 0.888 points per chance against press defenses, according to Synergy’s tracking data. Miami, which rarely pressures teams (26th in frequency), is absolutely lethal when it does (second in points allowed per chances). Add that to Charlotte’s very quiet struggles against zone defenses – 20th in efficiency – and you have a chance. Pay attention to the use of Davion Mitchell in this one, as one of the game’s major all-around irritants.
Dan Devine: At the risk of oversimplifying, we start with the stops. Miami entered mid-March ranked fourth in the NBA in points allowed per possession, doing its usual good-to-great job of establishing the fundamentals of an excellent defense with Erik Spoelstra and Adebayo at the controls. Over the past month, however, the Heat’s previously steadfast defense has buckled: 22nd in points allowed in the paint, 29th in opponent turnover rate and 30th – dead last – in defensive efficiency.
Announcement
The case of the glass half full, if you’re a Miami fan: A good portion of that defensive decline comes from the fact that opponents have shot a blistering 41.1% against the Heat on 3-point attempts over the past month — well above their entire season success rate, and a sign seemingly ripe for regression. Glass half empty? Led by LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, the Hornets ranked third in team 3-point accuracy this season, second in 3-point attempts and First in 3-pointers, including 36 combined 3-pointers against Miami in the last two meetings.
If Spoelstra, Adebayo and Co. can find a way to limit the number and quality of 3-point shots Charlotte is able to generate, they will have a chance to advance. But if they can’t stop the drive-and-kick game in man-to-man, and if the Hornets can exploit openings in Miami’s zone, a Charlotte offense that has been the best in the NBA since mid-December could send the Heat home for a long, difficult summer.
What is your opinion on the Blazers-Suns?
Dan Devine: Can Portland take care of the ball? At its best, a Phoenix defense that features parasites at the point of attack and physical hawks like Dillon Brooks, Jordan Goodwin, Collin Gillespie and Oso Ighodaro applies the kind of ball pressure that can create mistakes. For the season, the Suns ranked third in opponent turnover percentage, fourth in steals, and fifth in deflections; they have forced turnovers on nearly 20% of Portland’s offensive possessions in their three meetings this season.
Announcement
Interrupting and/or prematurely ending the Blazers’ road trips with a cough would be a hell of a way for the Suns to mitigate the significant physical advantages of a Portland team that can pound the paint with downhill drives from Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson and the newly returned Shaedon Sharpe, and pound the offensive glass for second chances with Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III. That advantage in size and physicality could lead the Blazers to their first postseason win of any kind in nearly five years … if a team that ranked last in turnover rate this season can keep its collective butterfingers in check.
Jensen: There’s no denying the fact that the Suns surprised us all. They have a top-10 defense and best player on the floor Devin Booker, both legitimate assets, especially against a young team like the Blazers that is still trying to find its identity.
However, the Blazers simply have more potential outcomes when it comes to strengthening players. Avdija, Sharpe, Jerami Grant, Holiday and even Scoot Henderson can all theoretically explode for 30-plus, meaning there’s simply a level of unpredictability with them that the Suns don’t have. Adding fuel to Portland’s fire is Toumani Camara, who has become one of the best 3-and-D wings in the league. He shoots outside at a high rate and is by far the best switchable defender on the court.
Announcement
The Suns may be more experienced, but are they significantly better? It’s hard to find a real argument in their favor other than “Devin Booker will find a way.” Of course this is indeed a real scenario that we cannot lose sight of.
Iko: Can I call it the mystery box game? I feel comfortable saying that I have absolutely no idea how this thing will end.
The problem with Phoenix having Booker, Brooks and Jalen Green for all 133 minutes in 10 games (just tied, +0.7 net rating) is that the Suns don’t really get to watch any of their three regular season matchups with Portland as the base. Green appeared in one alone, as did Brooks, and the third had Booker and Brooks without Green. As I wrote last week, this team is essentially trying to figure itself out in real time, which can be extremely dangerous in these high-stakes one-off games.
For this reason I will rely a lot on ball possession play. Both Portland and Phoenix are quality offensive rebounding units and both have a knack for forcing turnovers. (I must add, however, that Sharpe plus Clingan are an absolute terror on the glass, swallowing nearly 40% of the Blazers’ misses. They’re like two Steven Adams.)
Announcement
Expect Portland, with a host of ball stoppers like Holiday, Camara and Matisse Thybulle, to switch early and often against a Phoenix team that doesn’t move the ball much and struggles against switches. It will be a challenge that will come down to the wire.
Predictions: who advances?
Iko: Suns and hornets. I’ll go with Phoenix, who has too much individual talent at home to allow an upset of the Blazers, and Charlotte, who should become the East team no one wants to see in a seven-game series.
Divine: Alone and hot. I’ll take Phoenix, because I don’t trust the Blazers on the road, and Miami, because we’ve all spent too much time enjoying the Hornets lately, and this is, at its core, a cruel universe designed to humiliate us.
Announcement
Jensen: Suns and hornets. Never bet against Devin Booker, who can win you a game almost single-handedly. I think the Blazers are more fun to watch, but that’s neither here nor there in the prediction game. What about heat hornets? Give me something that buzzes, because it seems like their time has come.