The Thunder have the best NBA playoff odds, the Spurs own the season series and the Celtics are close
LAS VEGAS (AP) — Odds indicate the real NBA Finals will be a potential Western Conference showdown between the defending champion Thunder and a Spurs team that got the better of Oklahoma City this season.
But the numbers also say that the NBA postseason is starting to not exclude the Celtics, just two years after winning their record 18th championship.
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OKC is a +120 favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook to become the first team since Golden State in 2018 to repeat as champions. San Antonio, which defeated the Thunder four out of five times in the regular season, is next at +450. Boston is lurking at +550.
Every other team has odds of 10-1 or better.
“The Western team will be favorites in the final, unless there is a real shocker,” said Bruce Marshall, handicapper for WagerTalk/Gold Sheet. “Let’s say it’s Oklahoma or San Antonio. Both of those two would be favorites. Boston would have the best chance, I think, in the East, followed by the Knicks and then Detroit.”
David Lieberman, pro basketball executive at Caesars Sportsbook, expressed caution in assuming that the favorites would end up in the NBA Finals.
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“It should be pretty open this year, and I can see the top 3-5 seeds making a run in each conference,” Lieberman said. “I expect several long and competitive series all the way through.”
The main players from the East return
Jayson Tatum’s earlier-than-expected return from a torn Achilles tendon suffered in last year’s playoffs has bettors believing in the Celtics. Boston was priced at 10-1 before his return, and 8.7% of the bets and 8.2% of the money at BetMGM are on the Celtics. Behind only the Pistons in the Eastern Conference (10.2% of bets, 9.7% of handle).
There’s plenty of reason to be optimistic in Detroit with Cade Cunningham back after missing about three weeks with a collapsed lung.
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Even though the West is better and deeper, many bettors see value in the East’s numbers.
“The Detroit Pistons have been betting all year, and now with Cade Cunningham back and healthy, the betting is back on them again,” Lieberman said. “The top five seeds in the East have been pretty popular bets as of late, so I think there’s some confidence in those teams outside of the Celtics.”
The Lakers will probably be one and done
There was a lot of talk about keeping an eye on the Lakers as a potential sleeper team in the West before Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) suffered injuries this month.
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BetMGM betting numbers reflect low expectations for the Lakers. Los Angeles is priced at 125-1 to emerge from the West and 250-1 to win it all.
The fourth-seeded Lakers open the playoffs against No. 5 Houston. The Rockets are 8-1 favorites to win the series even without home-court advantage.
“The moment Luka got hurt, the chances of the Lakers making a deep run ended,” Marshall said. “Houston played better, so I think the Lakers (will have a) short stay. It’s a shame because it looked like they could have been threatening for a while when all hands were on the line.”
Home teams favored in play-in games
If the odds are correct, the four tournament matches on Tuesday and Wednesday should reach the final minutes.
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Charlotte and the Los Angeles Clippers, each at 5 1/2 points, are the biggest favorites at BetMGM.
The Hornets will play in Miami, with the winner facing either Orlando or Philadelphia and a possible matchup with top-seeded Detroit on the line. The 76ers are 1 1/2-point favorites over the Magic, with the winner of that game playing the Celtics.
In the West, the Clippers meet the Warriors for the right to play Portland or Phoenix and ultimately advance to play the Thunder. The Suns are 3 1/2 point favorites over the Trail Blazers, with the winner meeting the Spurs.
No supplies this time of year
Marshall agreed with NBA commissioner Adam Silver that tanking is a big problem for the league.
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The fact that some teams are not performing at their best will not be a factor in playoff betting, unlike the regular season.
“I actually liked it when you had these teams that didn’t try because you could try to go against them, even though the oddsmakers were really making us pay with a lot of these numbers,” Marshall said. “It’s really a disease in the NBA and they’re trying to deal with it, but it gets worse every year with the tanking stuff. As soon as a team sees they’re out of the playoff picture, they try not to win.”
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