Warriors vs. Suns predictions, picks and odds for Friday’s NBA play-in tournament

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Basketball nostalgia is a powerful drug. I spent hours watching highlights from the past, remembering the glory days of NBA action.

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Hoops players got a strong dose of this Wednesday, when the Golden State Warriors scored 43 points in the fourth quarter to stun the LA Clippers.

Stephen Curry’s 3-point barrage, Draymond Green’s lockdown defense and the Dubs digging themselves out of a 13-point hole stirred memories of Golden State’s past postseason dominance and set up a Play-In Tournament tilt with the Phoenix Suns.

But despite what my retro sneaker collection would tell you, I won’t be buying this throwback.

Our predictions for Warriors vs. Suns are realistic about Golden State’s situational predicament on Friday and my NBA picks side with an underrated home team.

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Warriors vs Suns Prediction

Best Warriors vs Suns bet: Suns -3 (-110)

I’m a big fan of situational betting, and after listening to Golden State coach Steve Kerr following his team’s return to Los Angeles, my “spot betting sense” is awakening.

“For one night, it’s us. We’re champions again,” Kerr told reporters. “I know this may sound crazy to everyone out there, but it’s an RPG. I don’t care.”

The Warriors’ motivations were already mixed heading into the Play-In tournament, but after such a wild win and that statement from Kerr, it really seems like the Dubs are ripe for a massive disappointment in Phoenix on Friday.

If you can separate yourself from that nostalgic joy for a second, you’ll remember that Golden State is back in the postseason with one win in their last eight games. The Warriors were the ninth worst defense from the All-Star break and over 4-10 SU in last 14 road games.

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That potential for a face plant isn’t the only reason I’m disappearing from the Golden State. The Warriors will now be on the road for the fourth time in eight days, which means a lot of wear and tear on the aging legs of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis.

The Phoenix Suns, on the other hand, will be able to stay home and enjoy an additional day of rest and preparation. Phoenix was priced out after falling against a red-hot Portland team in the Play-In and has shown the ability to bounce back from poor performances, going 22-15 SU and 21-16 ATS when coming off a loss.

Warriors vs Suns: The same game

If the Suns are right and put the Warriors away, it will be with defense. Phoenix plays at a methodical pace and ranks among the stingiest home teams in the league, allowing just 108.5 points against home ground at the Mortgage Matchup Center, and are 15-27 Over/Under at home this season.

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Jalen Green looked in great shape upon returning from a knee injury against Portland, exploding for 35 points in the Play-In loss. He has scored 20+ points in 15 of his last 21 games and is expected to score 20 points against the Warriors on Friday.

Warriors vs Suns SGP

• Jalen Green Over 18.5 points

Our SGP “from the center”: Green Monsters

These green guys can pack the highest score for both teams. Draymond takes it out on the glass against the Suns’ small-ball lineup while Jalen continues his play-in performance with another big game for Phoenix.

Warriors vs Suns SGP

• Jalen Green Over 18.5 points

• Jalen Green Over 4.5 rebounds

• Draymond Green Over 8.5 points

• Draymond Green Over 5.5 rebounds

Betting between Warriors and Suns

• Diffusion: Warriors +3 | Suns -3

• Moneyline: Warriors +135 | Only -150

• Above/Below: Over 220 | Under 220

Warriors vs Suns betting trend to know

Favorites of -3 or less are 9-4 SU and ATS in the current NBA Play-In tournament format (as of 2021). Check out more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Suns.

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How to watch Warriors vs Suns

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